Global Macro Trading Journal

Interesting take on Apple's supposed "undervaluation." It lobbied for and was successful in an accounting rule change which allows it to book sales and profits for certain products faster than it used to. It appears to have had a material effect on its earnings reports.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ot-be-as-cheap-as-it-looks-jonathan-weil.html

Doesn't mean the stock's a sell, but without the rule change, the company is likely trading at a significantly higher than market multiple (which it probably should be).
 
Just shorted more euros - cost myself about 50-60 pips by taking the kids away for the long weekend. There is no question I would have shorted euros even before taking a leak upon waking this morning had I been home. Vacations can be a lot more expensive that just the cost of the room and the lift ticket.

These rallies in euros every time there is movement on a Greek bailout are absurd. There is nothing euro-positive about the Greek rescues. As for whether Germany walking away from the rescues is euro negative, I'm not sure, but I do believe the initial move in the euro would be sharply lower - several hundred pips as opposed to 50-75 pips higher should the bailout get inked.
 
Eh, just covered that extra short I put on last night. Fading these Greek rallies is yesterday's move - markets have moved on.

LTRO still rules the day and I expect risk will do just fine until Feb. 29. For the moment, risk on = rally in euro. No need to fight it right here.
 
Short term tactical trade call:

Long EURAUD 1.2395, Target 1.26+, Stop 1.2295 (R:R 1:2). If target doesn't reach, exit at end of week.
 
Quote from ralph00:

The yen continues to fall dollar/yen at 8 month high without the MOF doing a thing. Consensus seems to be growing that there has been a real policy change at the BOJ.

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/02/japan-gets-serious-about-fighting.html

The key will be seeing how the yen does during a risk off episode. Will it just strengthen again as the BOJ loses its nerve?
More...

I expect the Japanese government is shitting itself at the prospect of lasting trade deficits. It's a life-or-death situation for them. Remains to be seen whether a weaker Yen will actually improve matters, since the ill-conceived total panic shutdown of Japan's nuclear industry means they will be importing much more in fossil fuels from here until forever.

The race to the currency-devaluation bottom heads into the second lap...
 
Can someone tell the euro stocks have been headed down since the Greek "rescue"? K. Thanks.

On a serious note, I believe the euro's strength this week has much to do with the absurd leak that the ECB is going to be a little tighter with policy than expected. That should work at well, given the implosion in most EU economies.
 
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