Global Macro Trading Journal

So far I have been wrong on my recession call. TLT is in the red and I got squeezed on EWH. On the good side BRKB(Which is my largest stock holding) has been doing well, FMCN is squeezing me(I emailed the old grumpy accountants blog and they said their model indicate 99% chance of fraud in this company 2007 fin statements). EUR is squeezing, its been slightly down year so far
 
Quote from ralph00:

"Eight different monetary policies."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204883304577221301377525014.html?mod=rss_world_markets

Euro shorts are going to get burned from time to time on reflexive risk rallies, but currency devaluation is ECB policy. Gotta use those rallies to add to shorts.
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Currency devaluation is the policy of every CB in the world, what makes you think Euro will necessarily sink the fastest?

There are other ways to play it - borrow EUR to buy gold, for instance.
 
Good point.

I think the ECB will surpass even the Fed and other CBs this year. I'd rather borrow euros to buy WMT or BP or XOM. Not bearish on gold, just don't really get it.
 
Quote from dhpar:
I agree with today's under-performance - but that just made the level more ridiculous.

I have it as a long term hedge against EUR problems (as I have to keep quite a bit of assets in Europe) and it is not working exactly as expected - basically 7.80 all the time like HKD...even with the help of strong gas and brent...
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It may be a little too early and I may jinx it, but I do think a congratulatory pat on the back is in order (special thanks goes out to Governor Olsen for an award-winning performance, especially tonight).
 
No chatter about winners please.

I lift my head off the bed (nasty flu) to see risk rallying over news the ECB is quickly swapping its old Greek paper for new. It's about as clear a sign as you'll ever get that Greece is about to default (probably Monday) I would think.

Unless the rally is just a Pavlovian response to anything that hits the tape with "ECB, Greece, swap," it is certainly making me rethink my euro short. Not adding to it as of yet.
 
Quote from ralph00:
No chatter about winners please.
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Very gentle chatter, to be fair... I couldn't contain myself, but I agree, it's a bad idea to congratulate oneself, generally. Hope you get better!
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

It may be a little too early and I may jinx it, but I do think a congratulatory pat on the back is in order (special thanks goes out to Governor Olsen for an award-winning performance, especially tonight).
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well i am glad that at least someone sees it as bullish - i was happy not to see in the speech any direct threat about FX intervention but the usual mentions of export competitiveness keeps me nervous...
 
Quote from dhpar:
well i am glad that at least someone sees it as bullish - i was happy not to see in the speech any direct threat about FX intervention but the usual mentions of export competitiveness keeps me nervous...
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I think it's certainly a very different emphasis to what everyone was expecting. There were several things that he said that suggested that they're not going to cut for the sake of weakening the ccy, given the risks associated w/low rates. So maybe wasn't that exciting overall, but certainly seems to have come as a bit of a surprise to the mkt.
 
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