Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from atticus:

I don't know your expected holding period, but short some 30-delta calls against it. Maybe short the synthetic straddle at the strike you expect to reach (long 100 TLT, short 2x calls). Or simply sell the ATM put (synth = sell 1 call per 100 TLT).
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I plan to hold for the next 6-12 months. I'm not inclined to short volatility however, I believe Bill Gross is onto something with this 'paranormal' thesis. If I'm going to be wrong on this trade I expect a decent chance I will be wrong by a lot(inflation accelerates)
 
The guy's better at racking up Fast Money appearances than he is at managing money, and owning a plaything of the momo guys (who are having a good time squeezing the shorts in the New Year) won't change that. I'm sure investors in the Tilson Value Fund are thrilled their manager has them in a stock that moves up or down 20% on a whim.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...83&cmpto=NYSEARCA:SPY&cmptdms=0&q=MUTF:TILFX&

Check out those Morningstar rankings on the right side. Is it possible for a fund to get 0 stars?
 
If the CHF rises to the ceilling I plan to shorting the CHF again. If the SNB were to drop the peg, the CHF would very likely add deflationary pressures(and swiss inflation is already negative), this would force the SNB to start a large bond purchase program to QE away the treat of deflation

It just does not seem likely the CB would drop one QE to start another, specially given that bond buying QEs have their own costs(If inflation rises, bonds sell off and the CB has capital losses in its portfolio)

The accounting treatment of bond holdings often don't call for marking to market so they would not have to report the losses but they don't have to report the losses in FX either given that the peg fixes the market value(at least for losses)

In both cases it seems conventional wisdom from monetary experts that the losses are not meaningful given that the losses from the CB are offset by higher tax revenues from the treasury dept of the country if the QE program is successful in restarting the economy/nominal incomes.

If anything it seems likely they will either increase their FX intervention(by changing the peg to an even weaker one) or buy more bonds. I just don't think its likely at all they would do a major policy tightening(Thats what dropping the peg will amount to) with inflation so low
 
My grandma her appartment got sold today after being on the market for 18 months. 20% below the first asking price which was set at a ridiculous price level to see if any fool would bite.


Belgian real estate has been unaffected more or less throughout these last 4 years of real estate depreciation elsewhere so very happy to jump ship before this boat sinks.

Now what will she do with the money? How about some tripple A Mexican silver mine..:D
 
Nice essay from Saft. SNB peg will work great until one day it doesn't, and then it will be a disaster.

Thus far, the Swiss policy is almost universally acclaimed as a success. It has been successful; despite continued ructions in the euro zone the cap has not been truly tested. That's not the point. In going it alone and seeking to single-handedly hold back the sea, Switzerland makes a very typical risk management error by selecting a policy that will improve outcomes marginally much of the time, but lead to disaster in isolated circumstances.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-swiss-snb-idUSTRE8090HJ20120110
 
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