Global Macro Trading Journal

I agree with this article and this one of my main themes for 2012, a US recession
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120109.htm

How to turn that into low risk high reward trades is a different problem that is harder to solve. I remain short HK stocks that will almost surely get hit if the US goes into recession, there are the additional factors of a Chinese slowdown and EU crisis leading to global risk aversion

But I'm not yet sure to best play this idea as too much exposure to short positions in assets with positive risk premiums are risky. Perhaps I should consider buying USTs
 
Hildy out. There are clearly powerful groups in Switzerland who aren't happy with the hundreds of billions in trading losses by the SNB and now Hildy's policies mean buying even more euros? The whole thing with the wife gave them all they needed to oust him.

Pegs/floors are easier maintained in textbooks and messageboards than in the real world. Look for a challenge this year to EURCHF 1.20.
 
Quote from ralph00:
Hildy out. There are clearly powerful groups in Switzerland who aren't happy with the hundreds of billions in trading losses by the SNB and now Hildy's policies mean buying even more euros? The whole thing with the wife gave them all they needed to oust him.

Pegs/floors are easier maintained in textbooks and messageboards than in the real world. Look for a challenge this year to EURCHF 1.20.
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Well, they have just said that they're committed to it (both the SNB and the govt). Let's see what occurs, shall we?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, they have just said that they're committed to it (both the SNB and the govt). Let's see what occurs, shall we?
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What else are they going to say? "Thank goodness he's out. Now we're going to let the euro go.":D

Not selling EURCHF here, but at some point, traders may get a whiff this is not a one-way deal anymore and then we'll see how "committed" the SNB and the gov't is.
 
Quote from ralph00:

What else are they going to say? "Thank goodness he's out. Now we're going to let the euro go.":D

Not selling EURCHF here, but at some point, traders may get a whiff this is not a one-way deal anymore and then we'll see how "committed" the SNB and the gov't is.
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At least spirits of attackers will go up. The way I see it - sometime maybe withing next few months, peg will be attacked. The guy who market used to fear is no more, now all they are left are bureaucrats. This is my perception - I don't know much about guys at SNB though.
 
Quote from ralph00:
What else are they going to say? "Thank goodness he's out. Now we're going to let the euro go.":D

Not selling EURCHF here, but at some point, traders may get a whiff this is not a one-way deal anymore and then we'll see how "committed" the SNB and the gov't is.
More...
Could be... Let's see what transpires. I am stil short CHF, so I guess I am talking my book here.
Quote from gmst:
At least spirits of attackers will go up. The way I see it - sometime maybe withing next few months, peg will be attacked. The guy who market used to fear is no more, now all they are left are bureaucrats. This is my perception - I don't know much about guys at SNB though.
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Not sure about that... My impression is that Jordan (the interim head) is more aggressive, if anything (just based on his comments/speeches). Danthine isn't a shrinking violet, either. Again, only time will tell.
 
I purchased a position of about 7-8% in TLT(20y+ USTs). This is the first block, as I get more evidence of recession I will increase it

I won't bet the farm here but it should help me protect my long stock portfolio and produce some kind of profit if I'm correct
 
Quote from gmst:

At least spirits of attackers will go up. The way I see it - sometime maybe withing next few months, peg will be attacked. The guy who market used to fear is no more, now all they are left are bureaucrats. This is my perception - I don't know much about guys at SNB though.
More...

Lovely how all that matters these days is getting the politics right, who cares about fundamentals, price action, market dynamics etc.

If you want a good return on your money, hire a Kremlinologist... should be plenty of those still looking for work.
 
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