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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from Martinghoul:
Yep, it's a reasonable guess... Some of the new ECB measures also didn't apply to this tender (more eligibility of collateral, decline in the required reserve ratios, etc) , but will apply to the one in Feb. So it's possible that the one in Feb will actually see more participation.
Floyd Norris is claiming the loans rate fluctuate according to the benchmark rate on NYT
Quote from Daal:
But there is a risk the stress tests will force the company to raise equity at current prices. Although I'm not sure they will include litigation losses which is what matters
The biggest risk seems to be liquidity problem driving the company to some kind of gov bailout in the form of FDIC guarantee of assets. Stockholders might be hurt in that case
I'm thinking of setting up as follows
Long BAC+Short XLF+ Long $2.5 puts for Jan 2013.
Quote from Daal:
The biggest risk seems to be liquidity problem driving the company to some kind of gov bailout in the form of FDIC guarantee of assets. Stockholders might be hurt in that case
I'm thinking of setting up as follows
Long BAC+Short XLF+ Long $2.5 puts for Jan 2013.
i like this (in fact I have a similar relative value position on).
the bit i do not understand is why you want to waste cash on these puts (at around 70% vol). it is either "too big to fail" or it is not "too big to fail"- take your pick...
Quote from dhpar:
i like this (in fact I have a similar relative value position on).
the bit i do not understand is why you want to waste cash on these puts (at around 70% vol). it is either "too big to fail" or it is not "too big to fail"- take your pick...
I was looking at a cheap hedge against a liquidity problem that hurts stockholders(creditors will be saved though). At 70% vol its not cheap though
But frankly I might just wait 6-12 months on this. If a recession happens and the EU continues to have problems I have a hard time seeing the stock taking off a ton, specially given that the lawsuits should take a long time to play out
ralph, this is interesting, no?
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ear-of-mbs-reits-as-homeowners-refinance.html
I would like to know when the right time to get involved is.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ear-of-mbs-reits-as-homeowners-refinance.html
I would like to know when the right time to get involved is.
Quote from Martinghoul:
ralph, this is interesting, no?
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ear-of-mbs-reits-as-homeowners-refinance.html
I would like to know when the right time to get involved is.
Whoever is still long these scam companies need to have their head examined. 'low for longer' is a total mainstream view(as opposed to a few years back where it was like Hatzius versus the world). Now with this refinance issue they might be even good shorts
But that's a short with a pretty punitive negative carry... I am thinking of getting long if it gets sufficiently cheap, having briefly discussed it w/some mtge peeps.Quote from Daal:
Whoever is still long these scam companies need to have their head examined. 'low for longer' is a total mainstream view(as opposed to a few years back where it was like Hatzius versus the world). Now with this refinance issue they might be even good shorts
Quote from Martinghoul:
But that's a short with a pretty punitive negative carry... I am thinking of getting long if it gets sufficiently cheap, having briefly discussed it w/some mtge peeps.
There is a ton of people chasing those yields. In some stock newsletters I subscribe to these stocks are one of their favorites. The shock from people when they realize the dividend is not safe will be large, specially in the post mid-2013 phrase world
I understand the carry part but honestly maybe the carry thing is a good thing, it attracts a ton of suckers who overvalue the company