Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from gmst:

Good trade on EUR and AUD.

How do you know PTJ is dhpar....Is it some kind of joke :D

If he is truly here, then we are all fortunate to have him and hear his views. However, if that be the case, I think he will no longer post with the same handle, now that his identity has been revealed :)

Edit: and if he is PTJ, who are you ralph - you also some bigshot :) Tell us who you are.
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I'm just another white man trying to keep my dick wet.
 
Quote from ralph00:

I'm just another white man trying to keep my dick wet.
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Could it be?

strauss-kahn-riding.jpg
 
Quote from m22au:

Thanks for your thoughts jj90 and Debaser (and again thank you Debaser for the KBC idea).

I tend to agree with Debaser's view that if the Eurozone implodes, then it will take everything with it.

Even though North American equities would still outperform those in Europe, I would expect them to fall.
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I think I worked out what is confusing me the most. SocGen and Credit Agricole are trading as if they could easily enter a downward death spiral, whereas North American and UK banks are trading as if nothing is wrong.

At the time of typing this, SocGen is at 16.02 and ACA at 4.06, both very close to key support levels, but US and UK banks are up by 1% to 2%.

edited to update: SocGen breaks below 16.00 and Commerzbank breaks below 1.30
 
Quote from Debaser82:

The EU is both China as the US biggest trading partner, and Japan's third largest.

Any suggestion a Eurozone collapse would be contained certainly is far out there wouldnt you agree.

If it wouldnt have any negative or significant impact every fundamental analysis on everything can be trown in the trash can.

That's not to say the US stockmarkets and currency wouldnt be able to profit from the turbulence obviously.
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As referenced by m22au's last post, the mkts are not pricing an EU collapse in. This isn't to say that there's not a serious fundamental problem there, but it's maybe not what you expect. And here's another crazy scenario, let's say the EU completely implodes, what stops the trading partners from trading among each other ex the EU? And I know someone says; you can't expect a corp that does 30% of sales in EU to magically switch that 30% to the US. Why not? Last I looked there is organic albeit sluggish growth in NA. And while my opinion is that China is having their 07' currently, Asia ex-China is still growing at a good clip and with worldwide CBs easing, this round of musical chairs can keep going. IMO at least till global growth actually picks up, maybe in 5 years.
 
In honor of the funniest twitter stream out there and the about as close a thing as you'll get to a free Bloomberg terminal combining with Bank of America's latest print ...

bac%20share.jpg


:p
 
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