Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Greek ETF to start trading on NYSE on Thursday. If they ever let these poor people devalue, I'll be in there buying ...
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...ning-a-greek-stock-etf/?mod=wsj_share_twitter
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...ning-a-greek-stock-etf/?mod=wsj_share_twitter
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/201...he-mind-of-willem-buiter-but-tread-carefully/
"There is no evidence that fiscal austerity depresses demand and activity to the point that the government deficit actually fails to improve or indeed increases, i.e. there is no empirical evidence whatsoever for the existence of a Keynesian Laffer curve. "
I found these comments interesting. It always struck me as silly the idea from the perma 'austerity won't work' folks. As if you kept cutting the deficit GDP would be driven down to $0 without an improvement in the fiscal picture
"There is no evidence that fiscal austerity depresses demand and activity to the point that the government deficit actually fails to improve or indeed increases, i.e. there is no empirical evidence whatsoever for the existence of a Keynesian Laffer curve. "
I found these comments interesting. It always struck me as silly the idea from the perma 'austerity won't work' folks. As if you kept cutting the deficit GDP would be driven down to $0 without an improvement in the fiscal picture
I think this is a great idea, actually... Buying German utilities on the cheap (if you can get 'em), generally, is the trade du jour for me.
The playing of the public is really in full gear here in Europe.
2 days to save the Euro.
50% chance Euro wont survive 2011.
Next year no more Euro.
Back to old currency= 50% cut in value.
It actually makes me feel rather uncomfortable as the statements are clearly given the green light.
All of a sudden the press gives a transparant platform to the matters of economics?
Try getting on TV or in a newspaper stating this or that bank is insolvent....
You wouldnt make it passed security.
2 days to save the Euro.
50% chance Euro wont survive 2011.
Next year no more Euro.
Back to old currency= 50% cut in value.
It actually makes me feel rather uncomfortable as the statements are clearly given the green light.
All of a sudden the press gives a transparant platform to the matters of economics?
Try getting on TV or in a newspaper stating this or that bank is insolvent....
You wouldnt make it passed security.
As far as I can tell the existence of 'monetary policy' of any sort is what causes recessions and depressions.
The EMU is only a 'problem' because the fractionally-reserved fiat-currency Debt ponzi is bound to collapse first in some economies compared to others - and the poor souls then can't print money to steal from savers and cover the bad debts.
The outcome is the same in any case, just a matter of how exciting the game is along the way.
Of course it won't go to zero or any such nonsense. But the problem nowadays, as I see it, is that massive government deficits are the only thing keeping the credit system afloat. Given the extreme nature of the problem in the Western economies, all deficit reduction plans will fail because in order to achieve it, you'll need to default on a huge proportion (75%? 90%?) of the current debt load, and accept a massive fall in GDP (30-40%?). Ireland is a case in point, nominal GDP is down 22% (!) from the peak but the government is still running a 10%+ deficit.
You have to reset somehow, if not to zero then to an overall debt level a quarter or so of what we currently see. Massive inflation seems to be the only way out as nobody at any level of importance, voters, political class, businessmen etc. is really prepared to drink the hard stuff.
