Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

Well, obviously fade at some point, just as the dozen moves in 07/08 were worth fading, just as the half dozen bazookas this year were worth fading. Whether the day to do it is today, tomorrow, or in 2012 is a different story. Typically, these things have a very short shelf-life, but you have serious seasonal technicals arguing against risk weakness for the next month.
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Yes I will agree that at some point (2-3-5 days lateron, it will be a good fade, even accounting for seasonality). For today I think its more like 50-50. e.g. it won't take much for AUD to reach 1.04 in a day or two.

Longer term, i think it is just more proof that long gold is a very good trade. This should take gold above 1900 before year end, barring major banks failing in Europe - which might take the price of gold down because of liquidation reasons.
 
Sold some euros.

Europe needs a much weaker currency. I expect EURUSD decoupling from risk to be a big theme in early 2012 (i.e. stocks could do fine and EUR goes down).
 
Quote from ralph00:

Sold some euros.

Europe needs a much weaker currency. I expect EURUSD decoupling from risk to be a big theme in early 2012 (i.e. stocks could do fine and EUR goes down).
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why a weaker currency? trade balance for Europe can't be much more positive already...
 
Quote from dhpar:

why a weaker currency? trade balance for Europe can't be much more positive already...
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Economy is imploding. Core is in recession, and the periphery is in depression. Banks can't raise capital, so they're slashing balance sheets. ECB with another 75 bps in cuts by mid-2012.
 
Quote from gmst:

anyone remember what was the markets reaction during RTH hours after such a coordinated intervention was announced last time
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Just went through couple of surprise rate cuts, with market's response some days before and after the event. Two different years, different cases, different conclusions as to how market reacted after the surprise rate cut.

In 2008, market continued to go up for a week post rate cut and then came back in 2nd week.

In 2001, market gave back gains post rate cut within 5 calendar days, and took 16 calendar days to come back to the high level set post rate cut.

2008 Jan 23 (75bps surprise rate cut when Fed Meeting was scheduled for Jan 30th):

Date S&P Opening Levels
2-Jan-08 1468
9-Jan-08 1390
17-Jan-08 1375
23-Jan-08 1310 (LOD 1270, HOD 1339)
25-Jan-08 1357 (HOD 1368) -- so a Low to High rally of 98 points in 2 days
30-Jan-08 HOD 1385
1-Feb-11 HOD 1396 --- rally continued for a week after Fed's action
7-Feb-08 1324 (LOD 1317) -- Gains given back almost after 2 weeks


2001 Jan 3 (50 bps FF rate cut and 25bps discount rate cut)

Date S&P Opening Levels
19-Dec-00 1323
21-Dec-00 1264
29-Dec-00 1333
3-Jan-11 1280 (HOD 1347 after rate cut during mkt hours)
4-Jan-11 (HOD 1350, LOD 1329) -- so not much different from previous day HOD
8-Jan-01 1297 HOD----so market was down 50 points from HOD after rate cut ....:eek:
12-Jan-01 1333 HOD --- market regained
18-Jan-01 1353 HOD --- mkt took 16 calendar days to breach the high set on 4th Jan.
 
HKD had a monster move up against USD. 20% of the band width in 1 day. It seems that Chinese loosening is bullish to the HKD
 
I'm curious why you would include your total net worth in return calculation. Why inflate the denominator by money you aren't even using to make in the numerator? Doesn't make sense to me.

What issues have you run into with scalability? It doesn't seem like you're scaling very much. Forgive me but I didnt' look through all 400+ pages of this journal.
 
Quote from adamm2:

I'm curious why you would include your total net worth in return calculation. Why inflate the denominator by money you aren't even using to make in the numerator? Doesn't make sense to me.

What issues have you run into with scalability? It doesn't seem like you're scaling very much. Forgive me but I didnt' look through all 400+ pages of this journal.
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I've seen some phony traders try to inflate their results by talking about their 'account returns'. Lets say this trader is worth $1M including his residence, he's got $200K with his broker. He makes $50K this year, this is only a 5% gain in his networth, hardly anything to write home about. Yet to his friends in the internet the guy looks good, he made 25%. If he had cut his account to $100K keeping the same risk, he would have 'made' 50%. He can do that for 10 years and say 'guys, I compounded 50% for 10 years, I'm Soros Jr' but the truth is, he barely made enough money to alter his lifestyle

This is what I'm in trading for and I believe most are, to produce the freedom lifestyle, and to do that you have to compare your returns to your total net worth

I don't have problems with scalability at all
 
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