Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Debaser82:

Australia raised to AAA. :)
More...

The country's finances are outstanding. In fact, they resemble Ireland prior to 2008. Reflexivity will be a word Aussies will become familiar with in coming years.
 
Quote from Daal:

AMR filed for bk. Hope you profited m22au
More...

yes, thank you :)

To be honest I wasn't expecting an AMR bankruptcy until 2012, but I don't mind it happening today at all :)
 
BAC nearing a $4 handle. All the bailouts, the Fed programs, the 0% rates, the Buffet/Obama investment, and nearly all the way back to the March 6, 2009 low. A triumph of capitalism over fascism. Love it.
 
China starts to ease monetary policy. Risk markets have turned on a dime and are soaring. Get used to lots of these announcements over the coming year and the flood of nimwits coming to air talking about how everything is now a buy because the Chinese are easing.

Markets turned around and/or soared every time the Fed eased in 2007/08 too. Like then, the Chinese are about to provide the nimble with many great opportunities to add to shorts.
 
Quote from ralph00:

China starts to ease monetary policy. Risk markets have turned on a dime and are soaring. Get used to lots of these announcements over the coming year and the flood of nimwits coming to air talking about how everything is now a buy because the Chinese are easing.

Markets turned around and/or soared every time the Fed eased in 2007/08 too. Like then, the Chinese are about to provide the nimble with many great opportunities to add to shorts.
More...

I've never really understood this line of reasoning. In order to 'add to shorts', doesn't that mean you had to have on only a small short in the first place? And if you play a major down move with small size, then you are not making much profit when you are right.

Unless you can somehow time all the dips and rallies to near-perfection, 'adding to shorts' on rallies means that you didn't have enough size short during the prior dip.
 
Late 2013 Fed futures contract are actually quite a bit lower than I thought. The market seems to be pricing in a decent amount of risk premium against a Fed hike that year. This complicates the trade
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

I've never really understood this line of reasoning. In order to 'add to shorts', doesn't that mean you had to have on only a small short in the first place? And if you play a major down move with small size, then you are not making much profit when you are right.

Unless you can somehow time all the dips and rallies to near-perfection, 'adding to shorts' on rallies means that you didn't have enough size short during the prior dip.
More...

We've been though this before partner and it bores me. I apologize for not fitting into your idea of the ideal trader. It works for me and in fact, has worked brilliantly throughout my AUD shorting over the past few months. The last week being an excellent case in point.
 
anyone remember what was the markets reaction during RTH hours after such a coordinated intervention was announced last time (must have been 2008, I wasn't that active in markets then)....any suggestions would help.

Basically i am trying to answer should this day be faded or go along with the CBs and take more risk ?
 
Quote from gmst:

anyone remember what was the markets reaction during RTH hours after such a coordinated intervention was announced last time (must have been 2008, I wasn't that active in markets then)....any suggestions would help.

Basically i am trying to answer should this day be faded or go along with the CBs and take more risk ?
More...

Well, obviously fade at some point, just as the dozen moves in 07/08 were worth fading, just as the half dozen bazookas this year were worth fading. Whether the day to do it is today, tomorrow, or in 2012 is a different story. Typically, these things have a very short shelf-life, but you have serious seasonal technicals arguing against risk weakness for the next month.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top