Global Macro Trading Journal

ralph00 · Nov 23, 2011

Chanos back from HK and Oz. ... "a complacent Australia which has hitched its economy to the tail of the tiger."

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/81455126/

75 handle on AUD before 2012 is out.

ralph00 · Nov 23, 2011

Anybody following the DMND story? When does this puppy become a buy?

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/102451

Ghost of Cutten · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

AUD w/ 96 handle now.

Banking some coin, but my guts are churning right now. It feels like we're on the edge of a complete financial meltdown - think 1987 combined with 2008.

Words from 'crats no longer can do a thing. All that's left is coordinated central bank action to paper Europe with euros.

But the ECB charter specifically and explicitly outlaws money-printing to bail out any EU governments. Not only do the Germans have to come round to money-printing (not something that would happen overnight), but then there has to be a legal process to change the ECB's charter, supported by most EU member states. This isn't going to happen within 48 hours of the Dax making new lows for the year, and might not even happen at all.

Debaser82 · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

But the ECB charter specifically and explicitly outlaws money-printing to bail out any EU governments. Not only do the Germans have to come round to money-printing (not something that would happen overnight), but then there has to be a legal process to change the ECB's charter, supported by most EU member states. This isn't going to happen within 48 hours of the Dax making new lows for the year, and might not even happen at all.

What is the difference between "printing money" and buying periferal bonds as they have been doing for months now?

Is it strictly the sterilising or not?

Ghost of Cutten · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

Anybody following the DMND story? When does this puppy become a buy?

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/102451

I don't see any way to get an edge there - how do you know if it was random suicide, or suicide because he/others cooked the books?

If it was the latter, then chances are it falls 50-75% or even more before it becomes a buy.

ralph00 · Nov 23, 2011

Bild reporting Merkel dropping resistance to eurobonds. Pavlovian markets rallying. Truly sad and pathetic.

Debaser82 · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

Bild reporting Merkel dropping resistance to eurobonds. Pavlovian markets rallying. Truly sad and pathetic.

I checked their site nothing there...

Martinghoul · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
But the ECB charter specifically and explicitly outlaws money-printing to bail out any EU governments. Not only do the Germans have to come round to money-printing (not something that would happen overnight), but then there has to be a legal process to change the ECB's charter, supported by most EU member states. This isn't going to happen within 48 hours of the Dax making new lows for the year, and might not even happen at all.

This is incorrect. There is nothing in the current law that prevents the ECB from making unsterilized purchases of EU member countries government bonds in the secondary market. It's allowed within their monetary policy transmission framework.

ralph00 · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from Debaser82:

I checked their site nothing there...

For tomorrow's paper. Reuters reporting it ... twitter and google are your friends

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/eurozone-germany-eurobonds-idUSL5E7MN4OS20111123

Martinghoul · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from Debaser82:
What is the difference between "printing money" and buying periferal bonds as they have been doing for months now?

Is it strictly the sterilising or not?

Yes.