Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from m22au:

Here is a start.

Have a look at AMR and tell me if you see:

(a) an airline about to go bankrupt in 2012
(b) an airline that might do a massive dilutive capital raising to delay option A.
(c) both of the above
More...

Current liabilities larger than current assets. I'd have to go through their 10Ks and 10Qs to see what kind of maturity issues they have in their financial cycle. Also I'm really curious to know what are their $4B in 'short-term investments', might not be that liquid given that they could be reaching for yield somewhere. It doesn't look good
 
Apparently Airline stocks haven't made any money since 1992. And my data only goes back to .... 1992. Does anyone has longer-term set of data on the XAL index?
 
http://www.amex.com/othProd/prodInf/OpPiIndMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=XAL


NYSE Arca Airline Index
The NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL) is an equal-dollar weighted index designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the airline industry. The XAL Index tracks the price performance of major U.S. and overseas airlines. The XAL Index was established with a benchmark value of 200.00 on October 21, 1994. The XAL Index is rebalanced quarterly based on closing prices on the third Friday in January, April, July & October to ensure that each component stock continues to represent approximately equal weight in the index.
 
Euro finally starting to crack a bit and stay down despite the bounce in shares. This support of the euro every time shares tick up is ridiculous. Europe is in recession - most of the continent in a severe one. The currency ought to be at a far lower level, irregardless of the sovereign debt situation.

Pretty close to a one-way bet here. Any bounce in the euro can't last for long. The continent's economy is imploding.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Euro finally starting to crack a bit and stay down despite the bounce in shares. This support of the euro every time shares tick up is ridiculous. Europe is in recession - most of the continent in a severe one. The currency ought to be at a far lower level, irregardless of the sovereign debt situation.

Pretty close to a one-way bet here. Any bounce in the euro can't last for long. The continent's economy is imploding.
More...

The average Euro Dollar rate since it's inception is 1.20 I believe so yeah there is room to fall no doubt.

But then again Ralph you know US policy makers are not in favour of a very strong USD so that and the Chinese profit margins might put a floor below the Euro at some point.

Ofcourse the US political situation today does not leave much room for the FED to ease much more despite it possibly driving stocks to new highs and the USD to levels deemed stable not long ago.
 
I'm surprised how the EUR is holding up well against other european currencies(NOK SEK). I'd think when the Bund stops being a haven capital would start fleeing the EUR zone into other places, I'd expect this to happen soon. If it doesn't I might have to dump these currencies entirely
 
AUD w/ 96 handle now. :)

Banking some coin, but my guts are churning right now. It feels like we're on the edge of a complete financial meltdown - think 1987 combined with 2008.

Words from 'crats no longer can do a thing. All that's left is coordinated central bank action to paper Europe with euros.
 
Quote from ralph00:

AUD w/ 96 handle now. :)

Banking some coin, but my guts are churning right now. It feels like we're on the edge of a complete financial meltdown - think 1987 combined with 2008.

Words from 'crats no longer can do a thing. All that's left is coordinated central bank action to paper Europe with euros.
More...

It doesn't even need to be coordinated.

If Europe refuses to print, and the S&P 500 is below 1000, then the Fed would have the political cover to print $$$ and buy up PIIGS debt.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top