Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Debaser82:

It was down 10% today. Down 90% from the pre 08 peak.

It's all over the news ofcourse.

Don't know how this will end really.
More...

Do you know the details of their biggest problem?

ie, Is it exposure to consumer debt? business debt? sovereign debt?
 
Quote from m22au:
Do you know the details of their biggest problem?

ie, Is it exposure to consumer debt? business debt? sovereign debt?
More...
Their biggest problem is that they're a Belgian bank. I am only half kidding.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Their biggest problem is that they're a Belgian bank. I am only half kidding.
More...


Hehe, yeah they have a 60 Billion Euro sovereign bond portfolio.

Half of that is Belgian.

I believe they have a +-400 Billion Balance sheet.

17 Billion capital

10 Billion rescue package from 08 that needs to be repaid

14 Billion Irish mortgages

20 Billion CDO's

Large Eastern Europe exposure

You get the picture...

:D


Oh well.
 
Quote from Debaser82:
Hehe, yeah they have a 60 Billion Euro sovereign bond portfolio.

Half of that is Belgian.

I believe they have a +-400 Billion Balance sheet.

17 Billion capital

10 Billion rescue package from 08 that needs to be repaid

14 Billion Irish mortgages

20 Billion CDO's

Large Eastern Europe exposure

You get the picture...

:D


Oh well.
More...
And no sovereign backstop ('cause there doesn't seem to be a sovereign)...
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

And no sovereign backstop ('cause there doesn't seem to be a sovereign)...
More...

Well, this has been the case for decades really if not longer.

People actually died in riots over internal disputes even in the seventies for instance.

What is clear is since the inception of the Euro risk has been allowed to build up out of control.

Before the Euro was launched for instance a very significant part of the country's debt was held internally, today I believe over 60% of Belgian debt is held by foreigners.

Same goes for banking leverage, etc.

I have always been ideologicly in favour of a Euro but clearly the currency union by bringing balance in some area's it brought about big imbalances elsewhere.

Yet ofcourse it is not the sole reason for imbalances. Belgian's debt to GDP was at 140% in the early 90's while there was no Euro around back then was there...
 
Quote from Debaser82:
Well, this has been the case for decades really if not longer.

People actually died in riots over internal disputes even in the seventies for instance.

What is clear is since the inception of the Euro risk has been allowed to build up out of control.

Before the Euro was launched for instance a very significant part of the country's debt was held internally, today I believe over 60% of Belgian debt is held by foreigners.

Same goes for banking leverage, etc.

I have always been ideologicly in favour of a Euro but clearly the currency union by bringing balance in some area's it brought about big imbalances elsewhere.

Yet ofcourse it is not the sole reason for imbalances. Belgian's debt to GDP was at 140% in the early 90's while there was no Euro around back then was there...
More...
Yep, agree... It's a whole lot of things going wrong and no existing mechanism (political, economic, etc) to address the issues. And it's very hard for a committee to create a mechanism from scratch in the heat of battle.
 
Quote from m22au:


Anyway - you can ignore all my fundamental analysis and just trade them off the chart. CBK, RBS and LYG are all much weaker than stronger European banks (eg. DB) and US banks (eg. JPM WFC and US regional banks).
More...

Another reason why I like CBK as a short is that (at the time of typing) it's down today, compared to gains of about 1% to 2% for other European banks.
 
Quote from m22au:


Anyway - you can ignore all my fundamental analysis and just trade them off the chart. CBK, RBS and LYG are all much weaker than stronger European banks (eg. DB) and US banks (eg. JPM WFC and US regional banks).
More...

Then again, you could ignore my advice to ignore my fundamental analysis.

Because according to this article:
www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/22/commerzbank-capital-idUSWEB527520111122

"Commerzbank may need 5 bln eur for EBA -sources"

which is a bit higher than the previously published amount of 2.938 billion EUR

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-require-eu106-billion-in-capital-table-.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CBK:GR

Bloomberg says
5,113.429 million shares
share price at 1.28 EUR

market cap = 6.545 billion
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top