Global Macro Trading Journal

Martin, why do you frown upon people coming on to TV telling about their economic views and investment strategies?

You realise how fragile most people are listening only to their bank clerk or portfolio manager and how costly this has been to so many these past years?

You know my grandma's banker tried to swing her Lehman bonds 2 weeks before they collapsed?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:Yeah, the Eurozone imports more from China than the U.S., but that's irrelevant, because it exports roughly the same amount. So the relationship between the yuan and the Euro is very different to the one between the Yuan and the Dollar. As a result, the Chinese buying of Euros has a very different rationale, as I mentioned in my previous post. [/B]
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Some official numbers:

Trade in goods

EU goods exports to China 2010: €113.1 billion (+38% on 2009)
EU goods imports from China 2010: €281.9 billion (+31% on 2009)

EU's imports from China are mainly industrial goods: machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. EU's exports to China are also concentrated on industrial products: machinery & transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured goods and chemicals.

Trade in services

EU services exports to China 2010: €20.2 billion
EU services imports from China 2010: €16.3 billion

Foreign Direct Investment

EU inward investment to China 2010: €4.9 billion
China inward investment to EU 2010: €0.9 billion

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/china/

My 6 cents are that China has a strong interest in a strong Euro given the figures above. But China has also a strong interest in "controlling" Japanese Yen and USD currency pairs, too. How many times did we hear that Chinese companies profit margins are "razor-thin"? Large currency swings detrimental to China´s export policies are not deserved...
 
Quote from Debaser82:

Martin, why do you frown upon people coming on to TV telling about their economic views and investment strategies?

You realise how fragile most people are listening only to their bank clerk or portfolio manager and how costly this has been to so many these past years?

You know my grandma's banker tried to swing her Lehman bonds 2 weeks before they collapsed?
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There are just as many people that get creamed because they listen to talking heads on TV as well...
 
Quote from ASusilovic:
Some official numbers:

Trade in goods

EU goods exports to China 2010: €113.1 billion (+38% on 2009)
EU goods imports from China 2010: €281.9 billion (+31% on 2009)

EU's imports from China are mainly industrial goods: machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. EU's exports to China are also concentrated on industrial products: machinery & transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured goods and chemicals.

Trade in services

EU services exports to China 2010: €20.2 billion
EU services imports from China 2010: €16.3 billion

Foreign Direct Investment

EU inward investment to China 2010: €4.9 billion
China inward investment to EU 2010: €0.9 billion

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/china/

My 6 cents are that China has a strong interest in a strong Euro given the figures above. But China has also a strong interest in "controlling" Japanese Yen and USD currency pairs, too. How many times did we hear that Chinese companies profit margins are "razor-thin"? Large currency swings detrimental to China´s export policies are not deserved...
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Yep, although you have to be careful with this particular set of numbers. If I am not mistaken, these are numbers for trade conducted w/China by the EU27, i.e. all the 27 members of the European Union. That includes the UK, as well as other countries that aren't members of the EMU, aka EA17.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:


Huh? What's this for? What's your issue?
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I think sometimes when you're presented with an alternative viewpoint that doesn't quite fit into your own way of thinking you're quite dismissive of that person, perhaps not deliberately so, but maybe morganist holds a different opinion.

ralph00 put it best when he wrote, "Your dislike of a guy like Bass seems to have more to do with the message he is delivering?"

Unfair?
 
Responding to ASusilovic about KB ...

He didn't go into the details of this trade in the interview (seriously, seek out the full interview - it was one of those BBC things where the purpose was to try and slam speculators and give a rah-rah for Europe's central planners and Bass just destroyed the interviewer).

He did however go through the details of Japan's frightening budget and demographic math. From past reports, we know he's betting on a blow-up in the Japanese bond market. I doubt it's a straight short of JGBs, but it may be. I've heard him joking how some 25 year old trader from (name your investment bank) happily sold him tens of billions of notional value for basically nothing.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

There are just as many people that get creamed because they listen to talking heads on TV as well...
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No one gets creamed listening. Be promiscuous in your research, selective in your trading.
 
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