Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

FWIW, I'm hearing some chatter in the mkt that there are peeps getting out of the HKD depeg trades.
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They probably need the cash to buy Krugerrands right...:D
 
Quote from Debaser82:

So, looking back...

Should they in 2008 not have nationalised all the banks and split them up in good and bad entities....

As the cost of the road taken keeps rising surely there has to be a point where the other option would have been cheaper.

It would have probably also been a wise political move as politicians could have distanced themselves from the banking community.

Or was the interwindeness just too much as it is today...
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I think nationalisation would have just fed market panic. There are many, many complicated issues that would come along with nationalisation, so I don't think it would necessarily have been a better option.
 
i am shorting aud on this run up at 1.0370. on Thursday AUD unemployment number is coming. I will hold the short through the number, when in general i don't risk money in front of a number ....hoping to catch eventual sell-off either due to Europe news or some downgrade or Mideast tension or something else.

One key thing to note is AUD or Euro's relative underperformance compared to last week when AUD was at 1.075 when ES was at 1280. Now, ES is at 1270 and AUD is at 1.039.

This sure might take some heat, but this is a medium term position, not going to touch it for few days. will cut the position in half at 1.055.
 
Used this little ramp in AUD to reopen short (still short EUR). Silly doesn't even begin to describe these rips in risk assets on every little thing out of Europe.

As everyone knows, I've railed against encroaching statism, central planning, world being run by incompetent central bankers ... what have you for months.

Not even I imagined things could turn out so badly for the world. We've just witnessed Berlin-engineered coups in both Greece and Italy within a few days of each other, with German/banker puppets likely to be installed in place of probably incompetent, but nevertheless democratically elected leaders. For a generation or more, bankers and the wealthy class will have first dibs on the fruits of Greek and Italian (don't forget Irish, Portuguese and likely Spanish) labor - reparations far greater than Germany ever had to pay following WWI. All without a shot being fired.

The result is actually probably bullish for stocks in the short and medium term. Fascism did wonders in Germany and Italy for at least a little while 80 years ago. Eventually, these guys will be dragged through the streets, but that day is far off.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Used this little ramp in AUD to reopen short (still short EUR). Silly doesn't even begin to describe these rips in risk assets on every little thing out of Europe.

As everyone knows, I've railed against encroaching statism, central planning, world being run by incompetent central bankers ... what have you for months.

Not even I imagined things could turn out so badly for the world. We've just witnessed Berlin-engineered coups in both Greece and Italy within a few days of each other, with German/banker puppets likely to be installed in place of probably incompetent, but nevertheless democratically elected leaders. For a generation or more, bankers and the wealthy class will have first dibs on the fruits of Greek and Italian (don't forget Irish, Portuguese and likely Spanish) labor - reparations far greater than Germany ever had to pay following WWI. All without a shot being fired.

The result is actually probably bullish for stocks in the short and medium term. Fascism did wonders in Germany and Italy for at least a little while 80 years ago. Eventually, these guys will be dragged through the streets, but that day is far off.
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Where do you get the idea that German banker puppets will be installed to lead Greece and Italy? Since when HAVEN'T bankers and the wealthy elite had first dibs on the fruits of labor?

I see the situation slightly different, I think. I see two incompetent leaders who are being driven from office because of their inability to be effective leaders. Both have mismanaged their country's finances to the point of near ruin. I say good riddance, especially to the walking joke that is Berlusconi.
 
Out long AUD myself at 1.033 for a scratch. Serious underperformance from AUD and comms. in general vs SPX. Looks to be choppy here on most asset classes till year end. I hold short vol positions and will reconsider on a downturn or 1st trading day of 12'.
 
Quote from Kassz007:
Where do you get the idea that German banker puppets will be installed to lead Greece and Italy? Since when HAVEN'T bankers and the wealthy elite had first dibs on the fruits of labor?

I see the situation slightly different, I think. I see two incompetent leaders who are being driven from office because of their inability to be effective leaders. Both have mismanaged their country's finances to the point of near ruin. I say good riddance, especially to the walking joke that is Berlusconi.
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+1

Total calamity in BTPS this fine morning and SuperMario not being too helpful.
 
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