Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from jj90:

ralph, the point is if you had those winners, stop bragging about them. Yeah I could post my trade log showing I shorted ES and CAD/USD on fri, and I do mention some of my trade ideas here time to time. In fact I have posted about long gold since Feb, but I don't go "wow, look at me! I'm the hottest shit since fukushima". You alone in this thread specifically come in after a winner and convienently ignore your losers, which BTW I have 1 documented incident, but that's just breaking your balls.
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Sorry, to me this thread is about coming up with actionable ideas. If I have one, I let folks know, also letting know of the results. I mean this is what it's all about isn't it? Or shall we just discuss the intricacies of the mechanism of excess reserves to NGDP to IOER to god knows what.

You're hearing what you want to hear.

As I've made clear, my big theory right now is the AUD short, a position currently underwater, as I've also made clear (though did pick up a shekels on its earlier move down). My other major idea this year was short FCX. I'm sorry if it happened to be a big winner. As for NLY, that's simply to tweak Daal. He's trashed the company for years, while in the meantime, owners of the stock have made nearly 10X their money in the time it's been public. Instead, he'd prefer eeking out a half dozen ticks a year on FF futures. That's fine - different horses ... All the other trades (as I also think I've made clear) were small money quick plays to keep me interested. Some winners and some losers. My basket of value stocks - each buy on those I've also made clear - some are up, some are down (not that I care much, I wish they'd all drop 50% so my reinvested divvies buy more).

Ideas on how to make money. That's why we're here.
 
Looking at fundamentals, relative performance of major currencies against each other and against major equity indices, from 1-3weeks perspective, good trades are short AUD, long Gold. There are others also, but I have most confidence in these two. Just as a little bit of hedge of gold collapsing led by a major liquidity driven selling (caused by something in Europe/MF global liquidations etc.) I will be short a little bit of silver.

I will keep selling AUD every 0.5/1 point if it goes higher, will stop out at 1.07. But if it starts to fall again, will be looking to re-enter.

Fundamental rationale is pretty straightforward. Draghi laid it bare yesterday what was only speculation about the upcoming recession. Numbers out of China and US have been bad. Its only a matter of time before rate cut expectations in AUD start to increase once again.
 
Quote from gmst:

Looking at fundamentals, relative performance of major currencies against each other and against major equity indices, from 1-3weeks perspective, good trades are short AUD, long Gold. There are others also, but I have most confidence in these two. Just as a little bit of hedge of gold collapsing led by a major liquidity driven selling (caused by something in Europe/MF global liquidations etc.) I will be short a little bit of silver.

I will keep selling AUD every 0.5/1 point if it goes higher, will stop out at 1.07. But if it starts to fall again, will be looking to re-enter.

Fundamental rationale is pretty straightforward. Draghi laid it bare yesterday what was only speculation about the upcoming recession. Numbers out of China and US have been bad. Its only a matter of time before rate cut expectations in AUD start to increase once again.
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Couple of days old, but of interest regarding slowdown in China and the whooping Aussie miners are will take. It also contains the seeds of the next meme - that China will make everything better by easing policy soon.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45141941?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
 
Dexia is still traded despite being split and the best pieces taken out.

it contains largely periferal Euro bonds so obviously given recent market conditions it continues to tank.

It has a 800 million euro market cap today.

It it falls a lot more I'm gonna buy me some just as a potential rebound play.

People might say buying stuff like that is nonsense and gambling and I partially agree but clearly conventional wisdom about risk needs to be retought as century old mastodonts in finance crumbled and left their shareholders with nothing despite their impeccable reputation of safety before.
 
Closed out AUD short and transferred most of the position to short EUR. As is clear, the 2 move essentially together, so hopefully I won't get burned, but I think a divergence is possible.

Either everything falls apart and both currencies take a powder or everything gets hunky dorry and both currencies go higher.

One possibility is that the ECB gives in and unleashes a Fed-like monetization of debt. This would cause a major risk rally - possibly sending the AUD much higher while EUR falls. The action in energy and the metals is screaming monetary pump. In fact, maybe the play is to short EUR/AUD. Going to look into it.:cool:
 
Quote from ralph00:

Closed out AUD short and transferred most of the position to short EUR. As is clear, the 2 move essentially together, so hopefully I won't get burned, but I think a divergence is possible.

Either everything falls apart and both currencies take a powder or everything gets hunky dorry and both currencies go higher.

One possibility is that the ECB gives in and unleashes a Fed-like monetization of debt. This would cause a major risk rally - possibly sending the AUD much higher while EUR falls. The action in energy and the metals is screaming monetary pump. In fact, maybe the play is to short EUR/AUD. Going to look into it.:cool:
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No comments on AUD trade. However the action in energy and metals is not screaming monetary pump, rather it is screaming potentially destabilizing situation in Mid-east. Buying 2000 gold calls and 120 oil calls might just turn out to be the trade of the year.
 
So, looking back...

Should they in 2008 not have nationalised all the banks and split them up in good and bad entities....

As the cost of the road taken keeps rising surely there has to be a point where the other option would have been cheaper.

It would have probably also been a wise political move as politicians could have distanced themselves from the banking community.

Or was the interwindeness just too much as it is today...
 
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