Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Daal:

According to this there is a 78% chance that Greece leaves the EUR
http://marginalrevolution.com/margi...ot-the-same-as-the-intrade-odds.html#comments

Since the chance seems to high, its better to wait for that in order to buy Greek stocks. I see that the Argentine peso dropped about 75% over the space of a few months after the default and de-pegging. You would have made the money back by holding the Argentina stock market but you would have made a killing by buying after the collapse
This seems to be a better plan in this case
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I forgot to note that the implied prob is probably lower than 78%. These bookmarkers tend to take a healthy cut of bets and this gets passed to gamblers in the form of worse odds
 
BRKB soaring lately, its my only decent sized position(Little less than 10% of my assets). Its a shame I didn't buy more in the Buffet bottom
I have been increasing shorts on EUR against NOK and SEK, it appears the the euro is strong but they have been falling consistently against those 2. I'm still underwater there though
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Yep, I'm with ya...
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As a standalone trade I wouldn't have the guts to go there but short bonds and long CDS could be a good trade. I'm not rich enough to do the trade though
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Yep, I'm with ya...
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Doesn't mean the price can't move against you and force you to post collateral though.

The EU has done what they set out to accomplish by order more than a year ago, and that's effectively ended CDS on sovereigns.
 
Quote from Daal:

BRKB soaring lately, its my only decent sized position(Little less than 10% of my assets). Its a shame I didn't buy more in the Buffet bottom
I have been increasing shorts on EUR against NOK and SEK, it appears the the euro is strong but they have been falling consistently against those 2. I'm still underwater there though
More...

Uh, the market is soaring. BRK doing its best to keep up.

http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...&cmpto=AMEX:SPY&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=0

I'm sure all of our stock portfolios are doing just fine (unless we're loaded up w/NFLX or FSLR or AMZN).
 
Quote from Daal:

As a standalone trade I wouldn't have the guts to go there but short bonds and long CDS could be a good trade. I'm not rich enough to do the trade though
More...

I meant short bonds and short CDS
 
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