Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from CH1973:

Its amazing how bearish people are.
I am starting to think that if this EU Summit creates some time off for Europe (before the EUR collapse) we might experience a year end rally.
1. The last US numbers have been better than expected
2. US Companies are reporting stronger than expected earnings (>70% of companies showed positive surprises in earnings)
3. The fear of a China hard landing somehow faded during the last 2weeks.
4. There is a lot of HF down on the year with cash on the sideline that cant afford to be out of a bullish mrkt
5. There is a good seasonality for the year end rally (as you can see here http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/a-tale-of-2-seasonal-investors/

Lets see if EU can take the rabbit out of the hat for sometime and we will see a Risk On mood.
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By all means. Equities are up 20% in 3 weeks. A few more up days and October 2011 might be the greatest month for the DJIA in the last 50 years. Hats off to you. Bearishness is rampant. Buying now might be one of the greatest contrarian plays ever.:confused:
 
Whatever comes out of tomorrow's confab may provide one of the juicier sell the news moments in recent memory, though at this moment I am not positioned for such. I would say that it better be a pretty good bazooka for stocks to be able to build upon the gains they've already seen this month. I mean the DJIA is one rally from 12K. What bear market?
 
Tilson knife-catching NFLX. What a bufoon and what is his need to announce all his moves publicly? Is it that important for him to be on Fast Money?
 
Quote from ralph00:

Tilson knife-catching NFLX. What a bufoon and what is his need to announce all his moves publicly? Is it that important for him to be on Fast Money?
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He is a smart man. Just goes to show that he is flexible and is willing to play both sides
 
Quote from Daal:
He is a smart man. Just goes to show that he is flexible and is willing to play both sides
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I think it would be an interesting experiment (and I think someone was talking about that recently in the context of Bruce Berkowitz) to see how a manager's performance is correlated with the amount and sort of publicity they get.
 
Quote from Daal:

He is a smart man. Just goes to show that he is flexible and is willing to play both sides
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"Beware the switches" was, if I recall, one of the lessons from Secrets of a Professional Horse Bettor, although I seemed to have misplaced both it and Niederhoffer's book.

He may be a very smart guy, he just happens to lose a lot of money for his investors.

Old proverb: Beware the value investor who shows up on Fast Money too often.
 
Quote from ralph00:

"Beware the switches" was, if I recall, one of the lessons from Secrets of a Professional Horse Bettor, although I seemed to have misplaced both it and Niederhoffer's book.

He may be a very smart guy, he just happens to lose a lot of money for his investors.

Old proverb: Beware the value investor who shows up on Fast Money too often.
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They need to raise money. Ackman is an attention whore as well, both occasionally can put out great investment ideas with facts and the thesis for free. I like that
 
Quote from Daal:

They need to raise money. Ackman is an attention whore as well, both occasionally can put out great investment ideas with facts and the thesis for free. I like that
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Funny. When Ackman starts showing up on fast money twice a month, we can talk. There's one other difference between the two - Ackman makes money for his clients and is likely one of the top managers of his generation.

The only time those 2 should be mentioned in the same sentence should be concerning MBIA. Ackman credits his old school chum Tilson w/giving him the idea. Thing is, Tilson thought it was a great value, and his idea was to buy. Ackman looked at it for a few minutes and realized it was the short of a lifetime and made billions.

"Whit" is just another guy out there buying "cheap" stocks based on what he thinks are Buffet-like principles. Might Netflix be good for a trade? Absolutely, but the stock is a broken bubble. Its days as a market leader, a highflyer, multiple years of double-digit returns are over. It's just another company trying to get by in the ridiculously dog-eat-dog industries of tech and entertainment. There isn't any way "Whit" has the slightest visibility for where this company is headed a year from now, let along 10 years from now. "Whit's" move is not the play of a top value man, it's an exercise in knife-catching and attention whoring.
 
Tilson was now telling CNBC he hopes Netflix drops some more so he can buy more of it. Didn't he also short more as it kept going against him from $200 to $275?

The 'I hope it goes against me so I can buy/short more' phrase never fails to expose guys who are flying without any risk-management to speak of.
 
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