Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from dhpar:

i may have been misunderstood here. actually i think the banks are more than well capitalized and TARP2 will never be needed. i just thought about it as the worst case scenario.

so you can buy BAC senior bonds for 70%-80% - think about the risk reward under plausible scenarios. doesn't it look favorable?

disclosure: I started to buy today (BAC seniors for the starters)...
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Well you could be right. I dunno, if the recession really happens in the US, I'd expect risk assets to take another dive down and the bonds to go with it. But yeah, buying gradually right now is probably the right play instead of waiting for the bottom that might never happen
 
Quote from dhpar:

:)

so what do you suggest would happen? all Americans would lose their money? LOL
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If I live to be 1000, I'll never understand why it's either bail out the stockholders and senior debtholders of banks or Armageddon. No in between allowed.

This is a false choice promulgated by Ben, Hank, and Timmy to hold Congress, the citizens, and even, it appears, Presidents hostage. I don't buy it, I've never bought it. It's a load of bullshit.
 
Quote from Daal:

Nice free feature I didn't know about. If you have an amazon account they let you store 5GB of data for free on their servers
https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive

Good place to backup some stuff in case your HD fries
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Uh, there's this thing called Mozy (or any other of a dozen places) and this thing called Time Machine (or any other of a dozen products).
 
OATS/Bunds spreads headed back to early 90s levels (a fun time for the ERM).

French_German_spread.png
 
Markets blasting higher on news of the latest EU bazooka. Unlike many, I do not think it is a baseless rumor. I think it is the truth and I think it will do little. Something like this has been floated about for awhile and just had to be coming. My thinking is that this is the "news" behind the massive move in risk assets during the last 10 sessions.

I'm using this blowoff to get short in size in AUD again. Just sold a bunch above $1.03. Exciting stuff. I've either made a great fade of the momentum or will lose several months of gains in a matter of days or weeks (or the AUD could just meander between $1.05 and $1.01 for a long time!). Fun stuff. This is why we're here!
 
Quote from ralph00:

Markets blasting higher on news of the latest EU bazooka. Unlike many, I do not think it is a baseless rumor. I think it is the truth and I think it will do little. Something like this has been floated about for awhile and just had to be coming. My thinking is that this is the "news" behind the massive move in risk assets during the last 10 sessions.

I'm using this blowoff to get short in size in AUD again. Just sold a bunch above $1.03. Exciting stuff. I've either made a great fade of the momentum or will lose several months of gains in a matter of days or weeks (or the AUD could just meander between $1.05 and $1.01 for a long time!). Fun stuff. This is why we're here!
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On last occasion, you had great success shorting AUD around 1.07. But at this juncture I am not convinced that time has come to short AUD yet (at least in the short run - at least till this weekend). I could be wrong though. Good Luck.
 
I'm often early in fading this sort of euphoria, and quite frankly am scratching my head that markets are rallying this morning on this weak sauce. I will reassess the situation at $1.05.
 
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