Global Macro Trading Journal

[ralph00]

Kyle Bass from Sept. 2010 ... great stuff, particularly brilliant in his assessment of central bankers around the 30 min. mark. Hildebrand seems to be the only one he has any respect for.

Humbling stuff. Anybody who thinks they can take alpha out of the markets, you're going up against guys like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWgtzwqWh60&feature=share

 

[dhpar]

what do you guys think about buying some senior debt of large financials? e.g. BAC, JPM, C...

one thing we learned in the past few years is that these institutions won't go under. they stock may get crushed in the worst case scenario (nationalization) but the debt should be made whole, i.e. no bankruptcy.

do not really understand why spreads widened that much recently. i must be missing something. it looks like a no brainer...getting 500bps over treasuries...

p.s. could somebody please paste here a graph of 5Y spread for BAC? (say last 4-5 years...). thanks

 

[Daal]

Quote from dhpar:

what do you guys think about buying some senior debt of large financials? e.g. BAC, JPM, C...

one thing we learned in the past few years is that these institutions won't go under. they stock may get crushed in the worst case scenario (nationalization) but the debt should be made whole, i.e. no bankruptcy.

do not really understand why spreads widened that much recently. i must be missing something. it looks like a no brainer...getting 500bps over treasuries...

p.s. could somebody please paste here a graph of 5Y spread for BAC? (say last 4-5 years...). thanks

Its something to keep an eye on. I made some money in early 2009 by buying C debt(against the collective advice of ET). It went to yield as much as 25% a year for 3-4 years. I didn't buy the bottom though

There is no TARP anymore so its one key difference that might affect things

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Daal:

Its something to keep an eye on. I made some money in early 2009 by buying C debt(against the collective advice of ET). It went to yield as much as 25% a year for 3-4 years. I didn't buy the bottom though

There is no TARP anymore so its one key difference that might affect things

if there is a danger that e.g. BAC goes down then don't worry - there will be a TARP2

 

[Daal]

Quote from dhpar:

if there is a danger that e.g. BAC goes down then don't worry - there will be a TARP2

I believe the FDIC is authorized to inject capital but there are all kinds of nuances that go into that that I'm not an expert on

 

[dhpar]

FDIC is broke. it would have to be solved by new funding from Congress and/or Fed.

but even republicans claim that we should have bailed out LEH - so when push comes to shove the money would be there.

of course it is not a riskless trade - it just looks attractive. and if it does not work you can be sure that all the rest (including your bank account) will be annihilated anyway...

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Daal:

Its something to keep an eye on. I made some money in early 2009 by buying C debt(against the collective advice of ET). It went to yield as much as 25% a year for 3-4 years. I didn't buy the bottom though

There is no TARP anymore so its one key difference that might affect things

Please. Did you do that as you were buying puts on XLF in the first week of March of that year?

Another bank bailout will be accompanied by mass rioting and assured bloodshed. I'm not saying there won't be stealth work done, but nothing on the scale of tarp, talf, and whatever else those 3 elves came up with .

 

[dhpar]

Quote from ralph00:

Please. Did you do that as you were buying puts on XLF in the first week of March of that year?

Another bank bailout will be accompanied by mass rioting and assured bloodshed. I'm not saying there won't be stealth work done, but nothing on the scale of tarp, talf, and whatever else those 3 elves came up with .

so what do you suggest would happen? all Americans would lose their money? LOL

 

[Daal]

Quote from dhpar:

FDIC is broke. it would have to be solved by new funding from Congress and/or Fed.

but even republicans claim that we should have bailed out LEH - so when push comes to shove the money would be there.

of course it is not a riskless trade - it just looks attractive. and if it does not work you can be sure that all the rest (including your bank account) will be annihilated anyway...

IF there is TARP 2(And I'm not sold on that yet), it still seems too early to buy. Because whatever they do, be it TARP 2 or some other solution, the bank bonds will be sold like crazy in the days before they announce their measures

Maybe that is what is going on here, a beauty contest sort of event where even though people think they wont fail, since investors know some people will freak out given the bad headlines and sell the bonds, the investors themselves are anticipating that, so they sell too and pull back bids

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Daal:

IF there is TARP 2(And I'm not sold on that yet), it still seems too early to buy. Because whatever they do, be it TARP 2 or some other solution, the bank bonds will be sold like crazy in the days before they announce their measures

Maybe that is what is going on here, a beauty contest sort of event where even though people think they wont fail, since investors know some people will freak out given the bad headlines and sell the bonds, the investors themselves are anticipating that, so they sell too and pull back bids

i may have been misunderstood here. actually i think the banks are more than well capitalized and TARP2 will never be needed. i just thought about it as the worst case scenario.

so you can buy BAC senior bonds for 70%-80% - think about the risk reward under plausible scenarios. doesn't it look favorable?

disclosure: I started to buy today (BAC seniors for the starters)...