Global Macro Trading Journal

Take it for what it's worth, but I think this strong NFP print is giving folks a golden opportunity to reposition themselves for further market trouble. I shorted a few AUD just now and am praying the rally holds for another hour so I can unload another chunk of my BAC, FAS, and XLF calls at far higher prices than I deserve.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Take it for what it's worth, but I think this strong NFP print is giving folks a golden opportunity to reposition themselves for further market trouble. I shorted a few AUD just now and am praying the rally holds for another hour so I can unload another chunk of my BAC, FAS, and XLF calls at far higher prices than I deserve.
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You seem to have a good touch for these 'short term' market moves Ralph....

But don't you fear the feeling of thinking you are so super smart and that effecting your decision making in the future?

I don't mean this in any condescending way at all...

Everyone who ever bought something that then goes up say 500% knows what I am talking about...


Vanity right...:D
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

What do you peeps think about yen here? Is there an expectation of some sort of intervention sooner rather than later? I confess to getting a bit excited and getting long a wee bit of NOKJPY.
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I think intervention is inevitable at some point if the situation continues as is. I've been shorting the JPY in small increments over the past couple of weeks going long USD/JPY and this week AUD/JPY.

These positions are quite small, but I want to be exposed in case the BOJ decides to do something. I can't see USD/JPY falling much further without Japan stepping in.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

What do you peeps think about yen here? Is there an expectation of some sort of intervention sooner rather than later? I confess to getting a bit excited and getting long a wee bit of NOKJPY.
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I stopped playing the JPY in the long side in any significant way after the SNB move. There is a decent chance they will do something like that, it might take forever but I just ain't going to take that chance
 
Quote from Debaser82:

You seem to have a good touch for these 'short term' market moves Ralph....

But don't you fear the feeling of thinking you are so super smart and that effecting your decision making in the future?

I don't mean this in any condescending way at all...

Everyone who ever bought something that then goes up say 500% knows what I am talking about...


Vanity right...:D
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Just covering some calls after a 30% 24 hours gain. We've had a massive 3 day rally, from some oversold conditions. It's not exactly rocket science - assuming you believe the world hasn't changed in the last 72 hours - to reposition the trading portfolio for a return to some market turbulence.

Taking some of the profits from those calls and headed to StubHub to see if I can pick up some behind the dugout seats for game 5 tonight. Go Phils!
 
Before the weekend, I'd like to say a kind word to the Occupy Wall Street folks. Word is, D.C. and the Fed is next on the list. If they can make that happen, I might take a drive down to my old hometown to lend support for a few hours.:)
 
Quote from Daal:

As far as the fakeout goes, yes you are exposed to that but my point was that there wasn't anything innate in options that are great, what if I charged 95% of your profits to protect you against a fakeout?
Its all about the price you pay for that protection, not the fact that you are protected
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What's great is that your risk is capped, and obviously that is worth something. Just like ALL market instruments, if you overpay for a characteristic, you lose money on average. But often, optionality is underpriced relative to taking a position in the underlying - and by refusing to trade options, you are incinerating large quantities of dollar bills every time you pass up such an opportunity.
 
Quote from Daal:

The reason I'm a bit skeptical of options is because they are nothing but a PRODUCT based off the underlying, usually with a middle man that wants to make money
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The reason you are sceptical is because you have an unfounded prejudice against them, and probably have little actual experience in trading them during volatile market conditions. Relying on an uninformed prejudice to form your market beliefs is expensive and foolhardy.
 
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