Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

Isn't Tilson one of the worst performing managers out there?
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Looks like he is beating the market since inception. Also I like the way he thinks, he is far smarter then the Bill Millers of the world even if he makes some silly mistakes(as we all do)
 
According to his numbers its his first year ever he has underperformed so much. In 2007 he lost 3.2% against a gain of 5.5% of S&P500, that was the 2nd worst
 
Quote from Daal:

To me a recession is almost a done deal, its a matter of how severe it will be and how the Fed will react to it(How large LSAPs will be)
That is a lot of uncertainty on that, which makes it hard to have a precise forecast

My bottom line here is to stay defensive and buy stuff that I think is quite undervalued
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In your view, why did stocks stop falling in 09? Was it just them being very oversold?
 
Quote from Debaser82:

In your view, why did stocks stop falling in 09? Was it just them being very oversold?
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In my view it was a combination of sentiment being very oversold combined with government policies that prevented a collapse in NGDP
 
Quote from Daal:

In my view it was a combination of sentiment being very oversold combined with government policies that prevented a collapse in NGDP
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I should add also that corporate profit growth tends to equal NGDP over the long-run. But in the 2008-2011 period there was a massive head fake. Even though NGDP slowed down(went negative for a period) then came back with sluggish growth, corporate profits collapsed first then staged a massive rebound on the back of productivity gains(corporate 'fat' that accumulated in the good years that were always available to be cut but most people didn't know about it)

At some point that information regarding profits was going to become known by everyone and a bounce in the market was inevitable. The market went too low and didn't took that into account
 
Quote from Daal:

I should add also that corporate profit growth tends to equal NGDP over the long-run. But in the 2008-2011 period there was a massive head fake. Even though NGDP slowed down(went negative for a period) then came back with sluggish growth, corporate profits collapsed first then staged a massive rebound on the back of productivity gains(corporate 'fat' that accumulated in the good years that were always available to be cut but most people didn't know about it)

At some point that information regarding profits was going to become known by everyone and a bounce in the market was inevitable. The market went too low and didn't took that into account
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Most "fund managers" in the US were too US centric. They didn´t realize that there is REALLY a new worl order existing where profits are even being made outside of the US.....
 
Quote from Daal:

According to his numbers its his first year ever he has underperformed so much. In 2007 he lost 3.2% against a gain of 5.5% of S&P500, that was the 2nd worst
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Let's not forget, Bill Miller (who you correctly trashed) beat the S&P every year ... until he didn't and then vaporized his investors' money. Didn't Tilson lose like double digits in August while the S&P wasn't even down that much? It'll take a lot of good months to make that back.

In any case, I'm not sure why the guy is in the press so much. He manages very little and his most public calls seem to be boners more than not. His play on NFLX may be one of the worst ever, buying the shares back at nearly the top. Sadly, I think he love MSFT. Hopefully, he'll lose patience and sell and then the shares can finally start moving higher!
 
I have a question that might sound very stupid but I'll ask it anyway.

So the Swiss were going to peg the CHF at 1.20 Euro's right.....

I believe it was at 1.10 the day before.

They wanted X to be at level Y and they managed to get it there.


Why not use the same method on whatever X could be and inform in advance who ever you want informed (say the banks) so they can play it for maximum gain and hit it big.

Ofcourse the losses would have to be contained to as there are 2 sides to every trade but in theory hundreds of billions could be made this way rather then accumulationg them through capital injections or saved by austerity no....

As I said I know it sounds stupid but what am I missing...

Maybe the moral hazard or even legality of it and the idea of giving up free markets in the clear open but really is that even still an issue these days...
 
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