Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Daal:
How 'constantly'?Are these options on Yen futures at the CME?
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Those or you can probably do FX options w/Oanda or smth... You can also do puts on JGB futures. I imagine that, either way, you'll need to roll every 3 months or smth.

And Dexia guarantees announced now, which is good news for Dexia, but not so good news for Belgium/France sovereigns.
 
There are yen etfs. Pick the most active one (prolly FXY) and I'm sure the option trade is quite active. You may able to buy puts one year out without getting grilled too much on the bid/ask.

As part of my AUD short, I bought Dec puts on FXA. The bid ask was quite wide at the time, so I didn't buy a lot, much to my chagrin as they have quadrupled in a few weeks.:mad:

The bottom line is I believe (for little retail punters) the option trade on the currency etfs is much better to get involved in than the option trade on the currencies in the fx market. Nothing scientific, just my barely informed opinion.
 
Quote from Daal:

Just covered 50% of my HK stocks shorts at a decent profit. They have been beaten down a lot lately. Might be due for a bounce
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In my experience, that's usually a bad reason to cover a short position. Usually the time to cover a short is a little before you would consider going long.
 
So you guys have any thoughts on where the DOW or S&P could drop here? Is a retest of the 09 lows a possibility or is that too much? Can the system take global banking stocks trading at penny stock levels again?
 
Quote from Debaser82:

So you guys have any thoughts on where the DOW or S&P could drop here? Is a retest of the 09 lows a possibility or is that too much? Can the system take global banking stocks trading at penny stock levels again?
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To me a recession is almost a done deal, its a matter of how severe it will be and how the Fed will react to it(How large LSAPs will be)
That is a lot of uncertainty on that, which makes it hard to have a precise forecast

My bottom line here is to stay defensive and buy stuff that I think is quite undervalued
 
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