Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from DrewLR:

You are missing out the high trade deficit from Soros' recipe for a stronger currency. Currently China has a quite big trade surplus (although decreasing, -34% YoY)
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Where he has written that a high trade deficit helps currencies?
 
Faber in his latest newsletter is bearish about everything except the US Dollar.

He is particularly bearish about emerging markets that could revisit 2009 lows...

Hope he is wrong...:p
 
So Zero Hedge is screaming Dexia is about to be nationalised in hours...

Unfortunatly it's not that simple.

For starters it is partially owned by the French and the Belgians.

Secondly several untouchable pressure groups such as the biggest union in the country have considerable positions in Dexia.

Disowning them at current market prices is as unimaginable as Ron Paul winning next years president elections that I can tell you for sure.

So let's see how this plays out...:)
 
Quote from Debaser82:

So Zero Hedge is screaming Dexia is about to be nationalised in hours...

Unfortunatly it's not that simple.

For starters it is partially owned by the French and the Belgians.

Secondly several untouchable pressure groups such as the biggest union in the country have considerable positions in Dexia.

Disowning them at current market prices is as unimaginable as Ron Paul winning next years president elections that I can tell you for sure.

So let's see how this plays out...:)
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The Moody's warning reads as a death sentence, I think ZH is right. Avoiding a Lehman moment will take over as priority of unions or anything else, thats how the EU leaders have been behaving, I see no reason why they would change now
They might do for the first time a EFSF bank recap, shares would get dilluted. In the minds of the leaders there:
Avoiding Lehman > Unions/Shareholders
 
Rebalanced my FX exposure and now I'm very long the US Dollar once again across all accounts against all major pairs. Probably the most bullish USD position I've had since May/June 2010 and boy did that hurt.
 
Anyone remember the gloating and arrogance between the lines in Paulson's 2010 year end letter?

I wonder if they'll reprint that fancy C chart in the 2011 edition showing how they made a cool billion in Citigroup.. and then gave everything back.
 
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