Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Decided to buy more BZL but not offset that by closing part of my short USD long comm currencies. So essentially a hybrid solution of the 2 best choices, I'm 'overhedging' to make up for the lower volatility of comm currencies compared to the brazilian real, plus increasing my share of the real in my hedging
Gold really diving. The last position of Paulson's that hasn't been destroyed. Unless we get another Fed bailout, this guy will lose more than 50% of his money this year. How's that Greenspan hiring working for you, JP? The G-man is proving to be as disastrous a consultant now as he was prior to entering government and as he was in his time in government.
I don't think there is any question that Greenspan is the greatest PR person in history. Has anybody else been so horrendously wrong in pretty much every utterance or piece of advice he's ever given, yet risen so high in the world. Geithner may challenge him some day, but the G-man wins for now.
I don't think there is any question that Greenspan is the greatest PR person in history. Has anybody else been so horrendously wrong in pretty much every utterance or piece of advice he's ever given, yet risen so high in the world. Geithner may challenge him some day, but the G-man wins for now.
That's bizarre, man... Surely it doesn't make sense to blame the G-man for Paulson's poor performance this year?
Paulson has made it clear that his bullish thesis on banks, housing, the economy is part due to advice he received from the Rabbi.
The larger point is that Greenspan has been a disastrous adviser going back to his days at Townshend in the 60s and 70s before entering government. His true gift is in self-promotion. This man's career is worth very careful study.
Gold below $1,650
Yes, I own a few puts, not enough to make a difference in life either way, but enough to make dinner a bit more enjoyable tonight.
The larger point is that Greenspan has been a disastrous adviser going back to his days at Townshend in the 60s and 70s before entering government. His true gift is in self-promotion. This man's career is worth very careful study.
Gold below $1,650
Yes, I own a few puts, not enough to make a difference in life either way, but enough to make dinner a bit more enjoyable tonight.I've exited my gold/silver spread here, due to the huge collapse in silver.
Gold was at one point down 110 dollars today. If I am not wrong, this is the single biggest dollar drop in gold in one day in history. Silver down 17% at one point. Classic sign of capitulation.....But then I said the same when eurochf moved down from 1.14 to 1.08 in 2 days, and from 1.24 to 1.08 in 2 weeks or so....That down move still continued right till 1.0075 or so.
Other than trend followers closing their position, hfs liquidating a portion of their long gold bets, and short term future traders simply shorting it to book profits - nothing in my opinion has changed that makes gold's long run bull case any weaker. Europe is and will remain in a mess, US deficit is only growing with each passing year and unemployment will remain elevated for a substantial period in future. Over the next 10 years, USD will continue to lose its value and oil will continue to go up.
I bought physical gold at 1820 and I think I should buy again now as its already down 200$ from my last purchase. As I wrote earlier, upside for gold is probably 3000-6000 $ over the next 10-20 years (especially when you consider that dollar might lose 50% - 80% of its value over the next 10-20 years), with downside of maybe 200-400 $ more.
Question is - should I buy it tomorrow or should I wait few more days/weeks ?
Other than trend followers closing their position, hfs liquidating a portion of their long gold bets, and short term future traders simply shorting it to book profits - nothing in my opinion has changed that makes gold's long run bull case any weaker. Europe is and will remain in a mess, US deficit is only growing with each passing year and unemployment will remain elevated for a substantial period in future. Over the next 10 years, USD will continue to lose its value and oil will continue to go up.
I bought physical gold at 1820 and I think I should buy again now as its already down 200$ from my last purchase. As I wrote earlier, upside for gold is probably 3000-6000 $ over the next 10-20 years (especially when you consider that dollar might lose 50% - 80% of its value over the next 10-20 years), with downside of maybe 200-400 $ more.
Question is - should I buy it tomorrow or should I wait few more days/weeks ?
