Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from dhpar:
i see. thanks. i was missing these FDIC insurance costs...
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No worries... In general, the problem with all these things that appear eminently sensible at first glance is all these technical issues. The whole system is complicated and, unfortunately, very fragile at the moment, due to years of "return optimization". So you do one of these simple things that should work and find out that there's all sorts of unpleasant side effects that make the remedy worse than the original problem.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

For sure... It's just a question of how much fear there is. All I'm saying is that until we know that US is like Japan it's hard to imagine a couple trillion of excess reserves going into USTs, no matter how much financial repression is used. Obv, I might be totally wrong on this.
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"Financial repression." I like it.:D
 
Quote from ralph00:


Once you've been kicked out of the group that allows trips to fancy, self-important get-togethers at exotic spots around the world, it kind of gives you the freedom to speak the truth.
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Yes, because now they don't have to answer to voters such as yourself who will always call for their heads if they say any remotely controversial truth that might be unpopular with you or other sections of society. If you kick a dog every time it barks, it will learn to stop barking.
 
Quote from Daal:

I structured the trade as a short on HK stocks hedged with the HKD trade.
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Your main risk is that there is no revaluation for 5-10 years, meanwhile Hong Kong equities grind up 10-15% per annum.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Your main risk is that there is no revaluation for 5-10 years, meanwhile Hong Kong equities grind up 10-15% per annum.
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True. But if their equities do that, real estate will be on the moon. Inflation also will be insanely high
 
I feel vindicated on the Brazilian Real. I had to watch that beast go up every week for a long-time but decided to not hedge my USD exposure using that but rather did a combination of 25% Real + gold/silver + basket of currencies

Currency tumbling high now. It seems that the SNB move has triggered a run on high PPP currencies. The NOK and SEK are also having a hard time
 
Quote from Daal:

True. But if their equities do that, real estate will be on the moon. Inflation also will be insanely high
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Well, just estimate the equity return with a moderate inflation rate. That's how much you will lose each year. Compound that by the number of years until revaluation, and see if you can take the heat.

10% per annum is the typical equities return, it doesn't require high inflation or a real estate boom.
 
Brazil and Australia are in the same boat - highly leveraged to China - and anyone long their currencies ought to pay serious attention to news in the U.S. coal sector today - shipments down as Asia slows. Toss in what we know is happening with copper, and the Chanos interview, and it's clear that while the world is focused on the latest eurocrat utterings, the planet's growth engine in sputtering bad.

Good piece from Rosie here, Top 10 reasons not to be short in front of the Fed.

http://pragcap.com/rosenberg-10-rea...ion?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
 
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