Global Macro Trading Journal

Does anyone has the Ackman presentation on the HKD?He says its on the CNBC site but I can't find it.
So far this trade looks pretty good even though I don't have access to the options.
A mega leveraged short on USDHKD will burn 0.5% a year for a return of 30%, that is 60x on your risk(reasonable risk). Less than Ackman's 100x but his thesis makes sense
I haven't been excited about a trade like this even since Q4 of 2008 when I started to bet the farm on fed funds futures...
 
FWIW, Jim Grant was talking about this trade a few months ago. I know Ackman's a reader and he or his people go to the Grant's conferences. Wouldn't surprise me if it was the genesis of the trade.

How does a non-institution lever up buying HKD?
 
Quote from ralph00:

FWIW, Jim Grant was talking about this trade a few months ago. I know Ackman's a reader and he or his people go to the Grant's conferences. Wouldn't surprise me if it was the genesis of the trade.

How does a non-institution lever up buying HKD?
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Oanda
 
After reviewing his videos, presentation and slides I'm thinking the HKD trade is very good

Assuming a 7.79 rate, the down side is 0.8%(7.85 upper band), 0.5% carry cost plus spread. Call it 1.5% per year

If there is 80% chance that Ackman is wrong in the next 12 months the expectation is

0.8 -> -1.5%
0.2 -> +20%(to be conservative)

-1.2% + 4% = 2.8% return
Lever that 10 times and it ain't a bad return

According to my calcs here, Ackman needs to be wrong 97.3% of the time for the trade to breakeven, more for it to be a loser

Ideally one would buy the options but after this presentation I'm sure they rallied quite a bit(Which is why he is doing that in the first place) but a short on USDHKD makes sense. I'm just trying to figure out how to size this position(Its going to be a big one)

Also, one needs not to lose the full 1.5%, that is because if China falls apart, HK will need loose monetary policy to deal with a recession so the peg would be ok. In that case I will exit the trade before it reached the upper band and I had to pay more carry. But I will try to err on the side of staying too much on rather than too little because the R/R is so out of whack
 
Chanos should be jumping on this trade as a hedge because if he is wrong on China, it should be a winner

Perhaps shorting select commodities/long HKD is a good trade here
 
According to my math the Kelly of this trade is 30%(Assuming 50% of working out, 50% of failing)
This would lead to either a loss of 30% of gain or 2000% of your networth. Of course, this is way too high because the margin requirements would be gigantic, its always more prudent to bet less than Kelly plus its hard to handle emotionally
But it does suggest that the trade has quality
 
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