Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Daal:

It seems to me that at these levels buying EURCHF is a low risk way to bet on 'risk on'. Certainly better than the stock market
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I agree. I went long a fair-sized position last night during the Asian session. Downside is quite limited in my opinion.
 
Ackman stepping into global macro - buying hong kong dollars and options on HKD.

I'm told you can get $100M notional exposure to HKD at $7.50 1 year out for $700K. Pretty nice payoff if HK revalues.
 
This HKD reval story has been a recurring urban legend for a good long time now... Interesting to see a relative newcomer (although quite a sophisticated investor, I am sure) getting on the bandwagon.
 
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lol, this is exactly why you are wrong on doubting the SNB can hold the peg. A committed central bank can hold a weak peg forever if they want to
 
Quote from Daal:

lol, this is exactly why you are wrong on doubting the SNB can hold the peg. A committed central bank can hold a weak peg forever if they want to
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Emerson alert. Give it a rest already.

Of course they can, but it leads to consequences, and then the SNB must decide if it wants to hold the floor or have the economy suffer the consequences.

The bank can control the price or the supply of francs, but not both.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

This HKD reval story has been a recurring urban legend for a good long time now... Interesting to see a relative newcomer (although quite a sophisticated investor, I am sure) getting on the bandwagon.
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i too switched all my USD into HKD about 1 month ago after the US short rates were decided to stay low for ever. given the minimal negative carry I pay I am willing to wait for years for HKD to appreciate from the 7.75/7.85 band.
but as asia/china is in a secular uptrend it makes sense for HK to float HKD early. there is no reason to hold USD in medium/long term - the currency must weaken to help fix many of US problems (debt/energy/balances). this is the same thing as to say that asian currencies must appreciate to solve many of their problems (stability/energy/balances).

note that to solve the current HK problems they must de-peg (not re-peg). the basket peg makes no sense whatsoever. in other words you must be given chance to tighten the monetary condition (leave USD peg) while not give people chance to bet on Yuan appreciation (not join RMB peg). as soon as RMB gets convertible I guess HKD will be abolished altogether at some fixed rate to RMB (which is basically the same thing as pegging to Yuan).

when you are in HK you can see Yuan everywhere - it is basically a parallel currency. bid/offer at street exchanges is basically zero - people there would be delighted to switch to Yuan...
 
Quote from dhpar:

i too switched all my USD into HKD about 1 month ago after the US short rates were decided to stay low for ever. given the minimal negative carry I pay I am willing to wait for years for HKD to appreciate from the 7.75/7.85 band.
but as asia/china is in a secular uptrend it makes sense for HK to float HKD early. there is no reason to hold USD in medium/long term - the currency must weaken to help fix many of US problems (debt/energy/balances). this is the same thing as to say that asian currencies must appreciate to solve many of their problems (stability/energy/balances).

note that to solve the current HK problems they must de-peg (not re-peg). the basket peg makes no sense whatsoever. in other words you must be given chance to tighten the monetary condition (leave USD peg) while not give people chance to bet on Yuan appreciation (not join RMB peg). as soon as RMB gets convertible I guess HKD will be abolished altogether at some fixed rate to RMB (which is basically the same thing as pegging to Yuan).

when you are in HK you can see Yuan everywhere - it is basically a parallel currency. bid/offer at street exchanges is basically zero - people there would be delighted to switch to Yuan...
More...

I was thinking the same thing this morning. Switching all my USD that is non-hedged(due fixed USD costs I have) to HDK. The cost is 0.5% a year. I'm going to see the ackman CNBC video and see if it makes any sense
 
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