Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

It's interesting that the euro is finally starting to take on serious water vs. the dollar. I wonder if the Swiss move has just forced traders into finding another currency with which to sell the euro against.
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I think this is a very good explanation.

There have also been some articles about CHF as a funding currency for a EUR/CHF carry trade. Specifically, if you believe the SNB will be successful in maintaining the 1.2000 floor, then you can sell CHF (buy EUR) and collect the carry.

Or, as seen in recent days, just sell CHF and buy USD instead.
 
If you believe the SNB will be successful, buying pretty much any ccy vs CHF is, basically, risk-free carry. You can even spend some money and buy some far OTM EURCHF puts (vol has gotten quite a bit cheaper now) to protect yourself somewhat against the SNB failure, if you're worried. The buggers are still damn expensive, though.
 
All that's missing now is someone like Schauble to pull a Hank Paulson and announce the markets are well-prepared for a Greek default and there's no risk it could trigger a systemic shockwave. Oh it's September too, how convenient.
 
I shorted some more EUR against SEK and NOK but mainly to get back my exposure I had cut back against CHF and JPY. For some reason I just can't get high confidence on trade and take a pig sized(pun intended) position
But I somehow feel the decline might be only beginning. It seems to me that is still a lot of bad news to come out of the EU zone
 
Quote from ralph00:

G7 had said expect no action/communique from this weekend's meeting. I somehow get the feeling that may change.

Stoxx 50 -7% for the week a few minutes before the close. The needle on the S&P has barely moved. Here's the divergence over the past month.

http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...ne&cmpto=NYSE:FEZ&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:SPY&ntsp=0

The issues in Europe are pretty clear, but reversion to the mean must occur at some point. Will be a tasty reversal pairs trade.
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but if the PIIGS debt losses are mainly confined to European banks, and economic impact is felt mainly in Europe, then it makes sense that European stocks would do worse than US stocks
 
I know little about individual companies in Europe, but there have to be some incredible bargains being formed (outside of the banks). So damn busy now, but I'd love to block off a week of time just to study.
 
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