Global Macro Trading Journal

[Daal]

When economists think there is 30% chance of recession, there is a recession almost every time
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/b...forecast-too-sunny-try-the-anxious-index.html

 

[benwm]

Quote from Daal:

When economists think there is 30% chance of recession, there is a recession almost every time
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/b...forecast-too-sunny-try-the-anxious-index.html

But if I am interpreting correctly, economist are only saying there is a 20.9% chance of recession at the moment...
Source: http://www.phil.frb.org/research-an...of-professional-forecasters/2011/survq311.cfm

 

[Daal]

Quote from benwm:

But if I am interpreting correctly, economist are only saying there is a 20.9% chance of recession at the moment...
Source: http://www.phil.frb.org/research-an...of-professional-forecasters/2011/survq311.cfm

You are right we are not there yet. But it just goes to show how skeptical one should be about these forecasts. Last year at this time I was wondering what the hell people were thinking when they thought the economy would dodge a double dip, turns out QE2 saved their lousy forecasts but I'm not sure they will be so lucky this time

It all comes down to recoveries from financial crisis being weaker than normal, so there is less of a buffer. This is a simple mathematical reality, I have no clue where people draw their confidence from

 

[Daal]

I believe Rosenberg pointed that the recessions happen once on average every 5 years but during balance sheet recessions(or financial crisis, I don't recall) they happen every 2 years. So it isn't simply a theory but an historical fact

 

[ralph00]

Long short sterling and euribor futures and short cable on the chance of surprise easing announcements from the BoE and ECB this morning. Probably should get short EURUSD as well, which I will get to.

Also will buy ES futures before the BoE at 7 ET.

Covered short AUD, made about 100 pips. Meh.

 

[ralph00]

So much for that.

AUD short back on.

 

[ralph00]

Remaining long euribor and short sterling sept and dec 11 futures into trichet's pressor.

 

[ralph00]

Bailed out by JCT. Some early dovish comments juiced the Dec euribor about 8 bps, allowed me to exit everything pretty much even.

 

[dhpar]

who cares...

 

[ralph00]

SNB selling volatility. Didn't know central banks got involved with that sort of stuff.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/uk-swiss-snb-intervention-idUKTRE78723920110908