Global Macro Trading Journal

[dhpar]

you could also make an argument that PPP is more important for judging low income countries exchange rate but much less so when it comes to rich countries.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Daal:
Whats holding back the PIGS economy is the austerity which they would not have to be going through if they had their central banks to do large amounts of QE, even financing their goverments. Koo seems to imply that monetary policy is innefective in boosting aggregate demand(I believe he claims all the reserves just get hoarded) and fiscal policy is the only way out

Monetary policy would be specially effective during a acute deleveraging because boosting incomes(NGDP) would go a long way towards helping people service debt

Well, how effective has QE2 been for the US? What about the effectiveness of years of aggressive easing (of all sorts) by the BoJ?

 

[Daal]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, how effective has QE2 been for the US? What about the effectiveness of years of aggressive easing (of all sorts) by the BoJ?

I believe you read Scott Sumner blog, he addressed all these points in a way I very much agree with. I don't have time to rewrite all his arguments

 

[Daal]

But in a nutshell even the 'easy' Fed has allowed NGDP to run massively below trend, so they hardly have done a lot of boosting to ADemand. BOJ is even worse

 

[Butterball]

Hussman is asking why so many pundits claim stocks are 'incredibly cheap' going forward while corporate margins are at record highs.

Short paragraph starting around the middle of the page, at 'Profit margins, labor income, and the growing cloud over earnings growth': http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110905.htm

 

[Debaser82]

Krugman goes bullish on gold and it plunges....

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Daal:
I believe you read Scott Sumner blog, he addressed all these points in a way I very much agree with. I don't have time to rewrite all his arguments

Yeah, I subscribe to his stuff... Even argued with him a bit once (over smth unrelated in Sweden).

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Butterball:

Hussman is asking why so many pundits claim stocks are 'incredibly cheap' going forward while corporate margins are at record highs.

Short paragraph starting around the middle of the page, at 'Profit margins, labor income, and the growing cloud over earnings growth': http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110905.htm

Eh, but the last third of the essay is just a "zero hedge, cut off bernanke's balls rant." He is to be ignored.

 

[ralph00]

Is a surprise cut by the ECB and a surprise QEII by the BoE a possibility tomorrow?

 

[ralph00]

Unloaded all of my NLY AH. Too many issues - mass refis, SEC tax thing, and flattening yield curve. I'm going to sit it out for awhile.

The shares were in a tax-free account so there aren't any issues there.

It's been a nice 14 year run. My income from divvies on this stock alone this year would have been more than my total income in 1997.