Pimco's El-Arian sees the ECB being pushed to cut rates, possibly later this year. Would be another historic flip-flop for Mr. Vigilant, one last kink in the vest before his well-deserved retirement.
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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Full blown risk off day and the AUD hasn't budged. I'm going to seriously reconsider this position before the NFP. The AUD moves higher on risk on days, but stays put on risk off days - I'll sound like the rest of the trend-following geniuses on the site and say the market is trying to tell me something.
Horrid NFP number, no reaction in AUD. This little guy doesn't want to go down (at least not against the dollar).
The GBP didn't want to go down in 2008 either. Then it dropped about 20 handles in a few weeks and 70 big numbers in a few months. Of course QE was not U.S. policy at the time.
The GBP didn't want to go down in 2008 either. Then it dropped about 20 handles in a few weeks and 70 big numbers in a few months. Of course QE was not U.S. policy at the time.
Quote from ralph00:
Horrid NFP number, no reaction in AUD. This little guy doesn't want to go down (at least not against the dollar).
The GBP didn't want to go down in 2008 either. Then it dropped about 20 handles in a few weeks and 70 big numbers in a few months. Of course QE was not U.S. policy at the time.
Ralph I agree with your trade in theory. For example at current price of about 1.0700, I think it goes to 1.0000 before it goes to 1.1100.
However the correlation since the start of August with brent oil is quite strong, and like you mentioned, risk of further QE means that the AUD (and other fiat currencies) aren't falling like they did in late 2008.
You probably won't see a big move down in the AUD unless:
(1) brent oil and iron ore and other industrial commodities fall by a lot and/or
(2) significant decline in Aussie interest rate expectations.
Also a strong gold price is generally supportive for the AUD, however (1) and (2) above are more important.
Bunds shooting through August highs. The MBA summer interns at the trading desks around Canary Wharf must be confident Europe is contracting already.
BAC off 7%. Warren sitting pretty in his bathtub.
http://twitter.com/#!/KeithMcCullough/status/109614490231910401
http://twitter.com/#!/KeithMcCullough/status/109614490231910401
Quote from ralph00:
BAC off 7%. Warren sitting pretty in his bathtub.
http://twitter.com/#!/KeithMcCullough/status/109614490231910401
I don't think that is entirely true.
If BAC goes bankrupt, then the preferred he owns could be diluted or even wiped out completely.
However what is true is that as an owner of preferred he is higher up in the capital structure, and gets his 6% dividend.
Quote from m22au:
I don't think that is entirely true.
If BAC goes bankrupt, then the preferred he owns could be diluted or even wiped out completely.
However what is true is that as an owner of preferred he is higher up in the capital structure, and gets his 6% dividend.
BAC is backstopped by the government. Buffett would not have made the investment otherwise. He has said the only reason he did the same with GS was because he was assured the government would bail them out. It's no coincidence he bought BAC within 48 hours of his conversation with the Bammer last week.
BTW, if I was a Repub pres candidate, I would pull Buffett aside and tell him if he doesn't stop pimping for Obama, I will make it my first order of business upon election to end TBTF, sending Warren to the (relative) poorhouse.
On a bigger picture, what we are witnessing in the economy and maybe in markets (though predicting their direction is a fool's game) is a massive failure of central planning. All the bailing, twisting of arms, and securities fraud by Hank and Tim and Ben - and this is what we get?
Quote from ralph00:
BAC is backstopped by the government. Buffett would not have made the investment otherwise. He has said the only reason he did the same with GS was because he was assured the government would bail them out. It's no coincidence he bought BAC within 48 hours of his conversation with the Bammer last week.
On a bigger picture, what we are witnessing in the economy and maybe in markets (though predicting their direction is a fool's game) is a massive failure of central planning. All the bailing, twisting of arms, and securities fraud by Hank and Tim and Ben - and this is what we get?
I agree with your "bigger picture" thesis from the last paragraph.
In terms of a BAC backstop - if and when BAC share price declines to $2 and goes to the government for a bailout, how would Obama (or whoever is president at the time) be able to "sell" to the general public the idea that Buffett is being made whole and not taking any hit on his preferred stock?