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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from gmst:
Basically, I will take half of my position off at 1.04 where i had entered, because this drawdown is too much for me. And I will take another quarter at 1.06 and another at 1.08. This plan is as of now.
It was hell of a ride - but finally out with an eek of profit on this trade. What caused this sudden selling of franc ? Any one knows.
Quote from gmst:
It was hell of a ride - but finally out with an eek of profit on this trade. What caused this sudden selling of franc ? Any one knows.
There was some talk of a hf selling swisse today in the interbank mkt. Maybe that alongwith pegging to euro talk has caused massive short covering rally now. With the hindsight, Looking at the price action, the whole day swiss franc was basing for a breakout to the upside.
Does this imply a possible move in usdjpy also to the upside ? Though I am of the view that even if usdjpy goes up, jpy strength in the long run has many more fundamental reasons going for it viz. imminent QE3, reconstruction post the earthquake, near zero rates in japan, deflation in japan, 95% of JGBs in Japanese hands etc.
I hope all are building lists of big caps. We're approaching mid 70s level of valuation
http://macrofugue.com/the-fat-pitch
http://macrofugue.com/the-fat-pitch
Quote from gmst:
There was some talk of a hf selling swisse today in the interbank mkt. Maybe that alongwith pegging to euro talk has caused massive short covering rally now. With the hindsight, Looking at the price action, the whole day swiss franc was basing for a breakout to the upside.
Does this imply a possible move in usdjpy also to the upside ? Though I am of the view that even if usdjpy goes up, jpy strength in the long run has many more fundamental reasons going for it viz. imminent QE3, reconstruction post the earthquake, near zero rates in japan, deflation in japan, 95% of JGBs in Japanese hands etc.
I think the BOJ is far more slow and incompetent(I don't think they ever considered a peg) but maybe I should monitor this possibility more. Hard to find currencies to put your cash in, gold has run a lot as well
We are now seeing the death of the 'safe havens' a.k.a. absurdly overvalued gambling chips for leveraged momentum traders. First the Swiss Franc - destroyed in a mere 36 hours, down over 8%. Next will be T-bonds - expect a 10 handle down week soon. Yen is also risky, so is gold for the short-term. All the 'safe havens' have this huge fear bid, which will dissipate within a short period, and cause price collapse when it does.
Forget building a stock portfolio - if you aren't long up to your maximum risk tolerance in your investment portfolio, then what are you waiting for, the next coming of 1932? Maximum long (whether that is 60%, 75%, or 100% for you personally) in attractively valued stocks is the only position that makes sense. Being long Treasuries when they yield less than solid blue chips is an indefensible investment position.
Forget building a stock portfolio - if you aren't long up to your maximum risk tolerance in your investment portfolio, then what are you waiting for, the next coming of 1932? Maximum long (whether that is 60%, 75%, or 100% for you personally) in attractively valued stocks is the only position that makes sense. Being long Treasuries when they yield less than solid blue chips is an indefensible investment position.
Yep, this mention of a "nucular" option is what did it. It's gonna be a brave new world if they end up actually doing it. To be sure, they have also been buying back SNB bills and asking for prices in 2m fwds, so they're in full-on intervention mode. I think there's a realization that this time they're deadly serious. As to the peg, the Danish one (ERMII) has been in place for a while, so why not Swiss. But it will be very interesting for sure.Quote from Daal:
Swiss bankers seem to be considering a peg to the EUR. As far as I'm aware this is the only intervention that works, switching to a fixed exchange system and printing unlimited money to keep it there. I don't think they are really serious about this though, at least not until they give up the idea of price stability. I can't see how choosing an artificial level for their exchange rate goes with price stability
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
We are now seeing the death of the 'safe havens' a.k.a. absurdly overvalued gambling chips for leveraged momentum traders. First the Swiss Franc - destroyed in a mere 36 hours, down over 8%. Next will be T-bonds - expect a 10 handle down week soon. Yen is also risky.
Forget building a stock portfolio - if you aren't long up to your maximum risk tolerance in your investment portfolio, then what are you waiting for, the next coming of 1932? Maximum long (whether that is 60%, 75%, or 100% for you personally) in attractively valued stocks is the only position that makes sense. Being long Treasuries when they yield less than solid blue chips is an indefensible investment position.
Your thesis makes sense if there is a "muddle through" period of low economic growth or a shallow recession. But if there is a deep recession (especially in light of fiscal austerity) or depression, then this could become 1932.
Also (brent) oil remains stubbornly high, and the ES:brent ratio is still below 11. If it remains below that level it will hurt those companies that cannot pass on increases in input costs to customers.
(Do you have a view on peak oil?)
So, the Global Macro ET crowd are all long up the gills? Any shorts here?