Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

The SocGen rumors are a total bunch of unadulterated bollox...
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I suspected this glad to see you think this as well. Greece and greek banks are in worse shape than any other place and yet there is only gradual deposit outflow with no runs that I'm aware of
 
Market tumbled on french downgrade rumor(Denied by all 3 agencies) and SocGen failure rumor(Denied by the bank and seems unlikely in any event). It smells like panic and bottoming type of activity
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

The SocGen rumors are a total bunch of unadulterated bollox...
More...

True enough.

Doesn't change the reality of the situation in Europe or for European banks.
 
We had daily false bankruptcy and panic rumors during Oct 2008 and thereafter. Never indicated a bottom for longer than a few days or hours.

I'll go a step futher... I'll rather buy after a couple of bankruptcies rather than hoping they can't possibly happen.
 
Quote from Butterball:

We had daily false bankruptcy and panic rumors during Oct 2008 and thereafter. Never indicated a bottom for longer than a few days or hours.

I'll go a step futher... I'll rather buy after a couple of bankruptcies rather than hoping they can't possibly happen.
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I agree with you. I'm talking a short-term bottom, final bottom who knows when it will come
 
Quote from Debaser82:

I'm having my best week ever. :)

Too bad I can't talk about it to anyone or they would shoot me down for taking advantage of the normal people.
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+1, but then again my equity curve is strongly correlated to gold:$SPX, so I'll give back some unrealised gains soon enough.

Still targetting gold:$SPX of 2.00
 
Quote from ralph00:

True enough.

Doesn't change the reality of the situation in Europe or for European banks.
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and Credit Agricole CRARY.PK (-15%) is actually down more, despite all the news being about SCGLY.PK (-14%).

And then there's ISNPY.PK -13%
 
One interesting point is the rally in U.S. shares yesterday happened after Europe closed way down. So while the U.S. is basically giving back a bit of yesterday. Europe never had any gains to give back, and indeed had sharp losses.

The correlations by which the vast majority of asset allocation and trading are done must have been thrown way off by this. I would think at some point, Europe is going to be a massive buy either outright or against the U.S.

If the U.S. can stay down for the rest of the day, I may be buying some EWI, EWG, EWQ ... before the close.

FWIW, I'm sniffing a rally in U.S. shares this afternoon, not on yesterday's scale, but a rally to more moderate losses.
 
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