Global Macro Trading Journal

The talk here in Europe is how a Euro bond market would be the best defence against speculators seeing how the US is arguably in just as bad of a state then the Eurozone if not worse yet their single bondmarket protects it against attacks or large disruptions because of solidarity across the states.

Yet they forget to mention how the USD has suffered this past decade as the bondmarket might not be as vulnerable so the weakness shows through the currency itself.

I am thinking an implementation of Eurozone bonds might hurt the euro dollar exchange and what do you tell the populace then when the tactic 'to save the euro' has caused the Euro to fall 20% in a couple of months or so...
 
Who do you know in Europe who will complain if the Euro falls 20% in a couple of months? Euro's problem is that it's chronically overvalued because of the Chinese. If the unlikely happens and t-w Euro falls as a result of the rescue package (whatever form it takes), it would be a very good thing for the Eurozone, I believe.
 
Agree with Martinghoul here. Stuffy old europe needs to debase here to be competitive globally, the U.S as least sees this and has done so even against popular sentiment of course, no population likes seeing their purchasing power evaporate.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Who do you know in Europe who will complain if the Euro falls 20% in a couple of months? Euro's problem is that it's chronically overvalued because of the Chinese. If the unlikely happens and t-w Euro falls as a result of the rescue package (whatever form it takes), it would be a very good thing for the Eurozone, I believe.
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A loss of sovereignty and a raise in taxes is in the cards because the Euro 'needs to be saved'.

At the exchange rate of today why exactly needs it to be saved?

I believe it was Frances minister of trade who stated just a year ago a Euro Dollar exchange rate of 1.50 was killing the Eurozone economy and today Eurozone politicians are gathering to save the currency a few percents below that exchange rate.

Newspaper articles everywhere here are claiming how this is D day all over again and if a deal doesnt pass a Balkanisation of the Eurozone and the crumbling of the Euro itself is months away.

I'm just saying whatever deal passes and the Euro drops as a result it will put further pressure on the legitimacy of those handling this crisis in the eyes of the public regardless of the necessity for a weakening Euro or not.
 
Anybody who wants to short the euro or Italian or Spanish shares or European banks is getting a chance here. Monster blowoff here from news out of the EU can-kicking summit.

Apparently, Trichet and the ECB have accepted Greek default (means bank will accept defaulted Greek paper as collateral). Euro is rocketing, but why this is positive for the currency is beyond my feeble understanding.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Anybody who wants to short the euro or Italian or Spanish shares or European banks is getting a chance here. Monster blowoff here from news out of the EU can-kicking summit.

Apparently, Trichet and the ECB have accepted Greek default (means bank will accept defaulted Greek paper as collateral). Euro is rocketing, but why this is positive for the currency is beyond my feeble understanding.
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I dont see it as positive either, this should make default an easier way politically than debt guarantees which risks the contagion and capital flights that are EUR negative
 
It seems that this new plan is a bit of everything. They will do both fiscal transfers(cutting the IR and lengthening the maturity of the bailout debt) and prepare for default('Draft EU summit conclusions says EFSF will be able to recapitalise financial institutions through loans to governments,including non-programme nations')
 
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