Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
they could "blame the speculators" and ban shorting some Italy-related products:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/re...italy-orders-short-sellers-disclose-positions
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it...selling-ban-early-tonight-prevent-market-rout
since they knew printing couldn't last forever,buying of key stocks to manipulate the market was a secondary tool to keep up appearances,the companies even raised dividends to keep money /borrowing open,the italy ,like the greek news will be played out thru the news positive and negative stories and spins, to manipulate the market and keep walls street profiting,it's a big carnival
Problem is that I don't think anyone has any sympathy for Bunga Bunga Boy. Still, I think the solution is just enlargement and empowerment of the EFSF.
This is all very very worrying, as nobody can handle Italy going down the drain.
Debaser, what's happening in Belgium? Looks like the latest attempt at forming a govt failed and Di Rupo is offering to resign. What's next?
Some details on the US employment crisis
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/how-many-jobs-are-needed-over-next-year.html
I also expect the participation rate to rise but even if it doesn't, the Fed is likely to see through that because they also look at the employment to population ratio. In sum it appears that the employment crisis will continue for a long time.
At this point I will just leave my current Fed futures position on instead of rolling over to longer contracts, at some point the market will do a 180 and think the Fed will start tightening, the shorter contracts will sell off only a bit but the longer ones will collapse, at that point I will switch. I do need more clarity on the inflation outlook though
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/how-many-jobs-are-needed-over-next-year.html
I also expect the participation rate to rise but even if it doesn't, the Fed is likely to see through that because they also look at the employment to population ratio. In sum it appears that the employment crisis will continue for a long time.
At this point I will just leave my current Fed futures position on instead of rolling over to longer contracts, at some point the market will do a 180 and think the Fed will start tightening, the shorter contracts will sell off only a bit but the longer ones will collapse, at that point I will switch. I do need more clarity on the inflation outlook though
The gridlock is complete really.
What happens next is just as uncertain as the markets mercy towards Italy will be.
Compare it to Boehner and Obama's debt struggle and you get a hint of what is happening here.
Maybe they will come closer together when the next round of banking bailouts comes...
Well, Belgium's got the Italian disease today... 10y OLOs wider by smth like 20bps, following 'em BTPS.
Munger notes. He believes BRK stock is undervalued
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/07/02/charlie-mungers-thoughts-on-the-world-part-1.aspx
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/07/02/charlie-mungers-thoughts-on-the-world-part-1.aspx
It seems that this EU situation it's like the banks in 2008, where panic feeds on itself and the EUR seems to be suffering as a result.
I find hard to see how Spain will dodge this regardless of how their fundamentals are better than of Greece or other countries. Psychology is more important than reality in these sorts of crises. And if default expectations keep going up I expect capital to start fleeing the EU
I'm debating whether to increase shorts
I find hard to see how Spain will dodge this regardless of how their fundamentals are better than of Greece or other countries. Psychology is more important than reality in these sorts of crises. And if default expectations keep going up I expect capital to start fleeing the EU
I'm debating whether to increase shorts
Yeah but when Italy falls who cares anymore right...
I mean if you think Greece and Portugal are too big to fail because of their western european banking exposure one doesnt wants to look at Italy exposure right...
I agree with Daal's sentiment about it mirroring the Lehman era.
If they have any bullets left now is the time to shoot them.
I don't think a press conference with Barosso and Van Rompuy claiming markets are overreacting will do any good..
Martin, what do you make of Berlusconi's booting its finance minister? He was suposed to be a real class act no?