Global Macro Trading Journal

Debaser82 · May 18, 2011

Quote from Daal:

US legal system seems to be a total mess. It looks like the DOJ intervened in the Nasdaq bid for the NYSE, threatened to sue claiming it would hurt competition and consumers, funny thing is, they would probably win. A bunch of people who studied law proclaim they are experts in something that economists mostly agree doesn't exist(A monopoly without government help), I bet they never even studied economics

If we want to 'risk manage' we need to go beyond money and risk manage our freedoms as well. I'm having a class on 'introduction to law' in my college course but I plan to learn more as well, buying books and stuff. Try to find out how to protect myself, etc without having to pay expensive lawyers

I dont know how that impacts gold though

I didnt ask your opinion cause of the gold link just to make it clear.

From your posts here it shows you have an interest in the legal system obviously so I was just curious towards your assesment of the US legal system indeed being in shambles or such a view rather being mostly the sour grapes of a few unavoidable victims of it, particullary since you are now living abroad which could influence your perspective either way.

Anyway, thanks for the answer.

Ghost of Cutten · May 18, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

It sure is scary. Freedom is precarious, even here in the states. Holding him without bail is a political decision made by a judge and DA who didn't want to appear soft on a rich guy.

How do you know? It's quite possible it's a normal decision when someone accused of rape is from a foreign country with no extradition treaty and has the means, finances, and motive to flee justice. What would a rich Frenchman lose by taking the next private jet out of the country? He's an obvious flight risk.

Also, there's risk from having sex with strangers. They could be HIV+, a serial killer, a psychopathic sadist, married to someone with a history of violence (who will come after you when they find out your diddled their wife), mentally unstable, have some other STD. And yes, they could accuse you of rape.

Similarly, there is risk to living in a bad part of town, or associating with known criminals and low-lifes, even if you personally do nothing criminal.

A bit like there is risk when you lose people money, even if you did nothing wrong. Strange on a trader site to see people apparently blind to the downside of obviously risky conduct.

Ghost of Cutten · May 18, 2011

Quote from Daal:

Yeah but still. I think the bail was something like $1m, so if an angry woman decides to lie its either $1m or jail for weeks, scary stuff

It's $1m if you are a politically influential multi-millionaire. If you're a broke street-sweeper, chances are it's less.

Daal · May 18, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

You don't have enough information to know that. For example, she may have bruises or scratches, or other indicators of assault.

The alternative to not requiring bail is for large numbers of guilty people to skidaddle as soon as they are accused of a serious crime, there's no perfect solution.

But one innocent person in jail is such a bad thing that it outweighs lots of criminals out. Most people would agree with that(I dont think anyone would be pleased with a 1-1 ratio, probably not even a 5-1 ratio)

The bruises or scratches thing could be an indicator but they are highly correlated to the 1st evidence(The witness). If the witness decided to provide false testimony he/she would make those up

Daal · May 18, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

How do you know? It's quite possible it's a normal decision when someone accused of rape is from a foreign country with no extradition treaty and has the means, finances, and motive to flee justice. What would a rich Frenchman lose by taking the next private jet out of the country? He's an obvious flight risk.

Also, there's risk from having sex with strangers. They could be HIV+, a serial killer, a psychopathic sadist, married to someone with a history of violence (who will come after you when they find out your diddled their wife), mentally unstable, have some other STD. And yes, they could accuse you of rape.

Similarly, there is risk to living in a bad part of town, or associating with known criminals and low-lifes, even if you personally do nothing criminal.

A bit like there is risk when you lose people money, even if you did nothing wrong. Strange on a trader site to see people apparently blind to the downside of obviously risky conduct.

I'd agree with you totally if we are talking about AFTER he admitted sex(claiming it was consensual) or if the DNA showed something. But if all it takes is some woman showing up at NYPD for someone to go to jail then the system is fucked up because women can be extremely dishonest when they are angry

Martinghoul · May 19, 2011

Quote from ralph00:
Power to the people.

http://www.debtocracy.gr/indexen.html

It's time to take back what the politicians and bankers are stealing.

Well, funnily enough, it looks like your heroes at the ECB are the ones that have now dug in their heels. They won't contemplate an restructuring option of any sort and have wheeled out their "nucular" deterrent. Specifically, they have said that (Trichet, Wellink and Stark on the wires today), in the event of a restructuring, they won't accept Greek guvvies as collateral. It's quite interesting who prevails in this case. In the past, the ECB eventually bowed to the political pressure, but this time around they might be more serious.

Debaser82 · May 19, 2011

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, funnily enough, it looks like your heroes at the ECB are the ones that have now dug in their heels. They won't contemplate an restructuring option of any sort and have wheeled out their "nucular" deterrent. Specifically, they have said that (Trichet, Wellink and Stark on the wires today), in the event of a restructuring, they won't accept Greek guvvies as collateral. It's quite interesting who prevails in this case. In the past, the ECB eventually bowed to the political pressure, but this time around they might be more serious.

I don't know if you are very familliar with him but I'll tell you this Wellink character is an ivory tower aristocrat that would pale Bernanke in comparison.

Anyway, Martinghoul.

I'm a bit suprised you would label it political pressure.

I would say it is (at least has been) in my view more a case of the banking system health twisting both the politicians arms and those of the central bankers.

They are quite co-dependend in my view, although perhaps lesser in the EU then in the US even given how a big bank failure in one country if contained would not lead by definition to the questioning of the ECB or it's leaders excistence or authority where as a similar event in the US probably could put severe pressure on the entire FED US society relationship nationwide.

ralph00 · May 19, 2011

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, funnily enough, it looks like your heroes at the ECB are the ones that have now dug in their heels. They won't contemplate an restructuring option of any sort and have wheeled out their "nucular" deterrent. Specifically, they have said that (Trichet, Wellink and Stark on the wires today), in the event of a restructuring, they won't accept Greek guvvies as collateral. It's quite interesting who prevails in this case. In the past, the ECB eventually bowed to the political pressure, but this time around they might be more serious.

Yeah, I saw that too. The ECB is worried about contagion and their banker clients, and I assume the central bank itself has a lot of this paper on its books.

The politicians/bankers are dug in and funding will be provided to push all this into 2013. My guess now is any sort of default will come from the ground up, i.e. protests will get so bad, it will force the politicians' hands. Think Tahrir Square in Athens/Dublin/Lisbon/Madrid. I don't know European election schedules offhand, but clearly those currently running the show in nearly every country will get tossed. Sadly, the ECB, IMF, Fed, and Tim Geithners of this world are going nowhere.

Martinghoul · May 19, 2011

Quote from ralph00:
Yeah, I saw that too. The ECB is worried about contagion and their banker clients, and I assume the central bank itself has a lot of this paper on its books.

The politicians/bankers are dug in and funding will be provided to push all this into 2013. My guess now is any sort of default will come from the ground up, i.e. protests will get so bad, it will force the politicians' hands. Think Tahrir Square in Athens/Dublin/Lisbon/Madrid. I don't know European election schedules offhand, but clearly those currently running the show in nearly every country will get tossed. Sadly, the ECB, IMF, Fed, and Tim Geithners of this world are going nowhere.

We'll have to see... It's a very interesting dynamic.

Quote from Debaser82:

I'm a bit suprised you would label it political pressure.

I would say it is (at least has been) in my view more a case of the banking system health twisting both the politicians arms and those of the central bankers.

They are quite co-dependend in my view, although perhaps lesser in the EU then in the US even given how a big bank failure in one country if contained would not lead by definition to the questioning of the ECB or it's leaders excistence or authority where as a similar event in the US probably could put severe pressure on the entire FED US society relationship nationwide.

Well, I think at the moment there's a definite split from what I can tell, so that's what I am referring to. I think the ECB will be forced to concede and will do as they're told, just like they did previously with the peripheral bond purchases. And yes, I am familiar with Wellink and don't have anything in particular against him.

Debaser82 · May 20, 2011

Quote from Martinghoul:

I think the ECB will be forced to concede and will do as they're told, just like they did previously with the peripheral bond purchases.

You think they shouldnt or shouldnt have?