Kocherlakota: extended period means 2 to 4 meetings
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ahHdeslXwrtg
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ahHdeslXwrtg
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I don't want to celebrate too early but it looks like the fed futures trade will be a winner. I can't really see Fed going anywhere by Jan 2011 after what is going on with commodities and iexpectations. I dont want to push this trade again as I believe Hatzius is wrong Fed will be on hold for 2012, barring a double dip I believe they get off 0% rates
So now I'm on the lookout for the next trade big trade. I want to buy commodities but I dont believe all the speculative premium has vanished they might correct some more. Also China's economy is making news, they could plunge some more, the guys who created the ECRI say global industrial growth will slowdown and commodities decline, at the very least one needs to be cautious there
I'm not quite sure at this point where to make a big bet, maybe on the EUR(short), I added a bit yesterday but I'm still not quite confident it is going to go down on bad news(lately it has but it could stop at any time)
So now I'm on the lookout for the next trade big trade. I want to buy commodities but I dont believe all the speculative premium has vanished they might correct some more. Also China's economy is making news, they could plunge some more, the guys who created the ECRI say global industrial growth will slowdown and commodities decline, at the very least one needs to be cautious there
I'm not quite sure at this point where to make a big bet, maybe on the EUR(short), I added a bit yesterday but I'm still not quite confident it is going to go down on bad news(lately it has but it could stop at any time)
The losers sitting in mommy's basement in their grranimals posting on stocktwits are all calling a double bottom. Wouldn't surprise me if they get it. 
PBOC cracking down on firms buying copper and then using it as collateral for cheap financing. FCX fanboys still talking about Chinese demand, not knowing a big part of it was from noodle manufacturers buying copper so they could borrow against it. LOL.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/16/569436/chinas-copper-collateral-and-covert-credit/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/16/569436/chinas-copper-collateral-and-covert-credit/
The most curious fact about the DSK scandal to me is the decision to jail him without bail even though they did not had any evidence(other than 1 witness)
This is scary, all it takes for someone to lose their freedom for quite some time is 1 angry woman willing to lie. Not saying this is the case here, he appears to be quite guilty but with the law like that I bet a ton of guys were/are going to be jailed unfairly
This is scary, all it takes for someone to lose their freedom for quite some time is 1 angry woman willing to lie. Not saying this is the case here, he appears to be quite guilty but with the law like that I bet a ton of guys were/are going to be jailed unfairly
Greek scenarios
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/greecescenarios.jpg
It appears that the restructuring talk is being overhyped a bit. The 'restructuring' looks like will happen in the bailout debt not market debt, this is essentially the 'fiscal transfers' scenario I had speculated would happen as a result of fears of 'another lehman'. For how long and how much in fiscal transfers they will do remain to be seen but if its huge enough it could solve greece's problems
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/greecescenarios.jpg
It appears that the restructuring talk is being overhyped a bit. The 'restructuring' looks like will happen in the bailout debt not market debt, this is essentially the 'fiscal transfers' scenario I had speculated would happen as a result of fears of 'another lehman'. For how long and how much in fiscal transfers they will do remain to be seen but if its huge enough it could solve greece's problems
I'd be interested to hear your comments on the following piece about insider trading and the Rajaratnam case.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/End of Times for Hedge Funds 05-15-2011.pdf
Nah, the "restructuring" or "reprofiling" (or whatever euphemism) talk isn't overhyped. There's def a lot of fear of another Lehman, but the fear of a wave of popular displeasure is also there.