Global Macro Trading Journal

Silver over $46 now, dollar sharply lower against single other asset on the planet.

Jim Grant had a very persuasive essay last night that there is little chance we don't get QEIII. Bernanke has now hitched everything to the S&P500. A swoon cannot be permitted so he will keep printing. Markets certainly seem to be pricing this in. I think this is the reason equity markets bounce back so savagely from even the smallest drop. Correction soon in commodities, but I think the move in "stuff" is just getting started.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Silver over $46 now, dollar sharply lower against single other asset on the planet.

Jim Grant had a very persuasive essay last night that there is little chance we don't get QEIII. Bernanke has now hitched everything to the S&P500. A swoon cannot be permitted so he will keep printing. Markets certainly seem to be pricing this in. I think this is the reason equity markets bounce back so savagely from even the smallest drop. Correction soon in commodities, but I think the move in "stuff" is just getting started.
More...

What does he bases his QE3 forecast on?At this point if the economic forecasts out there are correct there is little chance of QE3, unless M2 plunges
 
Quote from ralph00:

Silver over $46 now, dollar sharply lower against single other asset on the planet.

Jim Grant had a very persuasive essay last night that there is little chance we don't get QEIII. Bernanke has now hitched everything to the S&P500. A swoon cannot be permitted so he will keep printing. Markets certainly seem to be pricing this in. I think this is the reason equity markets bounce back so savagely from even the smallest drop. Correction soon in commodities, but I think the move in "stuff" is just getting started.
More...

At the high of the boom money was pouring into synthetic CDO's and people were buying Turkish luxury villa's online without even going there to check it out.

At the low of the bust people will only feel safe with their gold burried 20 feet in the back yard.

The rising in stocks and commodities, the selling of currencies and the continuing slump in housing only comfirms the trend we are in.

Supporting monetary policies, rising geopolitical tensions, implemented restrictions on capital movements and hot money coming in are as old as the business cycle itself and should not suprise anyone who has looked into (economic) history.

To me the one unknown factor determining how high we will go is how true commodity scarcity really is.

I'm stuck between seing everyone throwing enough food away daily to feed an entire nation and reading research on oil reserves or impending drought in Asia etc so I guess in the end I'm kind of neutral towards it.

Either it is true and it will support the trend even more or it's a this time it's different fallacy which will turn sour at some point but I'm quite confident if the latter is the case we still have some more years left.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

At the high of the boom money was pouring into synthetic CDO's and people were buying Turkish luxury villa's online without even going there to check it out.

At the low of the bust people will only feel safe with their gold burried 20 feet in the back yard.

The rising in stocks and commodities, the selling of currencies and the continuing slump in housing only comfirms the trend we are in.

Supporting monetary policies, rising geopolitical tensions, implemented restrictions on capital movements and hot money coming in are as old as the business cycle itself and should not suprise anyone who has looked into (economic) history.

To me the one unknown factor determining how high we will go is how true commodity scarcity really is.

I'm stuck between seing everyone throwing enough food away daily to feed an entire nation and reading research on oil reserves or impending drought in Asia etc so I guess in the end I'm kind of neutral towards it.

Either it is true and it will support the trend even more or it's a this time it's different fallacy which will turn sour at some point but I'm quite confident if the latter is the case we still have some more years left.
More...

Aren't you afraid of a 2008 or 1974 scenario though?Its something that I think about a lot when I'm long a bull market, sometimes cutting the position down to buy back later might be a good idea. Its very tricky to do it but the alternative is also hard to handle(50% or so collapses in your asset)
 
Quote from Daal:

Aren't you afraid of a 2008 or 1974 scenario though?Its something that I think about a lot when I'm long a bull market, sometimes cutting the position down to buy back later might be a good idea. Its very tricky to do it but the alternative is also hard to handle(50% or so collapses in your asset)
More...

I'm the kind of guy who when you go a night out with a group to the casino ends up broke after 15 minutes when the rest is still hanging away their coats.

I can't allow impulsivity to take hold or I'm done for.


I feel being mostly unleveraged and a Euro resident I have enough backstops in place to ensure not getting wipsawed all too hard.

If not so be it.

People take large risks all the time without having put in as much thought in it as I have so I will cary my faith with dignity. I hope.
 
Quote from Daal:

What does he bases his QE3 forecast on?At this point if the economic forecasts out there are correct there is little chance of QE3, unless M2 plunges
More...


Bernanke has added a 3rd mandate to Fed policy - rising share prices. This was implicit during Greenspan years and is now explicit. Should the end of QE or monetary tightening cause a break in shares, Bernanke will have to step in.

I don't know if anyone noticed the Monday morning leak that June 30 was going to be the end of QE. Stocks dove, commodities dove, dollar shot higher. Can't have that, so it was quickly followed by a Tuesday leak that no, QE would continue for technical reasons well beyond June 30, and we know how markets responded. Cullen Roche had a piece about this, but am too lazy to find the link.

I would also look up Hoisington's recent essay on QE. Great stuff.

Bernanke is boxed in, and election campaign in 2012 for his partners in crime - Obama and Geithner - make it near impossible for him to tighten. The move in "stuff" is only getting started.
 
Can't help but notice the stubbornness in bonds.

Long Gilts (bond) making new 30 day highs. Deutsches Reich bunds squeezed me out brutally last week. The last bond short positions I have on are the 30y US Ultras and they're close to hitting my stops as well.

The stock markets may see a golden era of high growth ahead, commodities and precious metals may forecast a decade of high inflation. Just noting.. the 800lbs gorilla aka bond market is not yet giving its nod.

Still have my doubts if this time is different and the bond boys see it all wrong.
 
The adjustment to the destruction of paper currency doesn't have to show itself in bond prices. The US and the UK can (and do) print the currency with which to buy their own bonds. They can theoretically do this to infinity, and Bernanke and Steve Liesman can point to low bond yields as signaling low inflation until the day they die and it won't make them right.

The adjustment is occurring in the value of paper currencies measured against gold, silver, wheat, cocoa, S&P500, Russel2000, art, rare books, and anything else of even the slightest tangible value on the planet.

We live in a planned economy now and higher bond yields are not part of the plan. Move on to another trade.
 
Euro back down to $1.4550 after being at $1.4650 a bit ago. Man, that currency is whipsaw city. I'll chew my arm off before I hit the trade button on that again (unless it's an option trade which is unlikely given the vols).
 
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