Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

It's all a conspiracy, innit? :)
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Kind of disappointed, silver couldn't quite make it to $43. I'm also happy to report that copper did not join in the rally and FCX took it hard all week long. I never expected my SLV calls and FCX puts to both work, but what can I say ...:cool:

If FCX goes, into the 40s again, that would be a real score. Talk about a universally loved stock. It's like betting don't pass on craps while the entirety of the rest of the casino is on pass. It would be like making money shorting MSFT in the 90s, covering, shorting again, and making money again.

Great video ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VL7V9BnJXO8&feature=player_embedded#at=67

In a world where cartoon bears on youtube are the most reliable source of info, anything is possible. Indeed.
 
Looks like the FBI closed a bunch of pokersites and is trying to get the owners to jail. Perfect, now the games will get even harder. It will be a bunch of europeans and russians trying to take the money from the few suckers that are left. I'm glad I'm getting a college degree, macro trading doesn't take much of my time and I was playing poker and studying when I wasn't trading. But it looks like this online gambling thing is going bust, at least at the rate where is possible to make a decent $/hr return
 
Daal, could you share your views on the appropriate amount of leverage...

You think high leverage is a certain road to the poorhouse or not necessarily?
 
Quote from Debaser82:

Daal, could you share your views on the appropriate amount of leverage...

You think high leverage is a certain road to the poorhouse or not necessarily?
More...

This ties directly to the discussion we were having about the optimum position sizing. I dont think there is nothing bad or good about leverage per se, its simply a tool that enables you to reach the amount of drawdowns/returns you are looking for

If you use leverage but stay away from the Kelly you are probably save. I say probably because under certain black swans you might go bankrupt. That's ok though, living carries certain tail risks that are unavoidable. You might get kidnapped, shot by the police, be arrested unfairly, have the Fed hike 100bps overnight on you, etc
 
S&P cuts US rating outlook. Euro bouncing hard. Anybody who didn't get short euros in front of the Finnish elections this weekend, gets another shot.
 
Greek 2 year yields up 161 basis points today, now at 20.12%.:D

Everybody on the planet, with the exception of a few european bureaucrats, knew Greece was going Argentina a long time ago, so this isn't much of a surprise. The rot is spreading to Spain now, their 2 year up 26 bp today.

Our thanks to the heroic Finns who stood and said "no more bailouts" yesterday. The only question is if leaders will finally listen to the will of the people or if the eurocrats/goldman/db/cs will figure a way to continue bailing without consent of the governed.

One more questions, if Greece goes, if Finland puts the ixnay on more bailouts, will Merkel finally listen to her citizenry and stop the madness, Sarkozy?

When the Irish see that Greece doesn't fall into the sea after they default, will they go hmmm, and pull the plug as well?

We stand astride history this year. Can Western governments continue to govern completely against the will of those who elected them? Will the people finally be heard? If this can happen in Europe, how long before the U.S. goes Cairo on Tim and Ben, Lloyd and Jamie?
 
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