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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Yes, if memory serves, Argy sov CDS payout (or lack thereof) is the one case that's still going through the New York courts. I think Merrills is the defendant, but I am not 100% sure. As to OTM JGB puts, there are ways. Problem is that payer/put skew is ridiculously expensive in Japanese rates (hypernormal), so it's not really gonna help.Quote from Daal:
Actually you are correct there(Btw, was there any CDS on Argentina when they defaulted?). Your Yen trade might be a better idea(Though perhaps OTM puts on JGB could be avaliable)
Nice inflation report out of the U.K. Real rates now at -5.0%. Same thing in the states, just to a lesser degree.
Western central banks have unleashed a wave of speculation and now 70's style inflation/stagflation upon the world. The ECB has at least acknowledged this a bit. A couple of members of the BoE, the same, but not enough to change course away from this disastrous policy. One of two guys on the Fed give an inkling that they are becoming aware of the situation, but Ben Bernanke will never admit this anymore than Gaddafi or any other tyrant would admit the wrongness of their policies.
The key now is an exit strategy. How can Bernanke and King reverse course without admitting what they have caused? How can they reverse course without causing another major financial bust?
Western central banks have unleashed a wave of speculation and now 70's style inflation/stagflation upon the world. The ECB has at least acknowledged this a bit. A couple of members of the BoE, the same, but not enough to change course away from this disastrous policy. One of two guys on the Fed give an inkling that they are becoming aware of the situation, but Ben Bernanke will never admit this anymore than Gaddafi or any other tyrant would admit the wrongness of their policies.
The key now is an exit strategy. How can Bernanke and King reverse course without admitting what they have caused? How can they reverse course without causing another major financial bust?
Quote from Debaser82:
As the Euro keeps rising I keep thinking but can only come up with Martin Armstrong as one of the very few analysts I know who saw potential strength on the Euro in 2011.
"Cyclially, we could see a high in 2011 above that of 2008."
10-15-2010
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Show Me The Money 10-15-2010.pdf
I've been long EUR/USD for three days. I wish I was long GBP, however.
John Paulson testimony financial crisis committee
http://www.valuewalk.com/financial-crisis/john-paulsons-testimony-financial-crisis-committee/
Amazing how he says CDSs on subprime garbage was a buy even as late as dec 2006 even though home prices weren't going nowhere
http://www.valuewalk.com/financial-crisis/john-paulsons-testimony-financial-crisis-committee/
Amazing how he says CDSs on subprime garbage was a buy even as late as dec 2006 even though home prices weren't going nowhere
Quote from ralph00:
Nice inflation report out of the U.K. Real rates now at -5.0%. Same thing in the states, just to a lesser degree.
Western central banks have unleashed a wave of speculation and now 70's style inflation/stagflation upon the world. The ECB has at least acknowledged this a bit. A couple of members of the BoE, the same, but not enough to change course away from this disastrous policy. One of two guys on the Fed give an inkling that they are becoming aware of the situation, but Ben Bernanke will never admit this anymore than Gaddafi or any other tyrant would admit the wrongness of their policies.
The key now is an exit strategy. How can Bernanke and King reverse course without admitting what they have caused? How can they reverse course without causing another major financial bust?
If you want to draw comparisons with the seventies many assets still have their biggest moves ahead of them.
In fact when you look behind the driving forces then and today future moves might even mitigate those of the seventies simply due to fundamentals.
Government debt, commodity scarcity, etc.
I believe Faber is actually right when he predicts trillion $ defictits as far as the eye can see and central banks not returning to true positive intrest rates ever again simply because they can't.
Ofcourse never is a hyperbole. How many years were there between Weimar Germany and the rock solid Mark?
Not that many from a longer term perspective really but the point is clear.
Stratfor says the Libyan war reasoning by the west is flawed
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stratfor-libya-west-and-narrative-democracy
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stratfor-libya-west-and-narrative-democracy
Quote from Debaser82:
If you want to draw comparisons with the seventies many assets still have their biggest moves ahead of them.
In fact when you look behind the driving forces then and today future moves might even mitigate those of the seventies simply due to fundamentals.
Government debt, commodity scarcity, etc.
I believe Faber is actually right when he predicts trillion $ defictits as far as the eye can see and central banks not returning to true positive intrest rates ever again simply because they can't.
Ofcourse never is a hyperbole. How many years were there between Weimar Germany and the rock solid Mark?
Not that many from a longer term perspective really but the point is clear.
I'm not sure it's a question of can't. Won't is the better word. It goes back to saving face. A rate hike by Bernanke or King at this point would be to admit failure, to admit that what they have done is to foment another inflationary boom, to solve a debt crisis with the piling on of more debt, to have engineered another stock market bubble. After all his speeches, his 60 minutes interview, his congressional testimony, how could Bernanke possibly do this and still show his face in public? No, if anything, I would expect Bernanke to even double down on his policies, the same way a tyrant responds to the massacre of his people by massacring even more of his people.
Until the exit of the Bernanke/Geithner axis from power in Washington, I'm afraid U.S. citizens are just going to have to get used to living in a stagflationary nightmare. Hopefully, a rising stock market will take away some of the pain for the 1% who have any significant amount of wealth tied to equities.
Quote from ralph00:
I'm not sure it's a question of can't. Won't is the better word. It goes back to saving face.
I think it's more a question of ideology and economic views.
Janet Yellen said once if she could put intrest rates at minus 5 % she would do it in a flash.
And many, often in high places, truly agree with her apparantly.
I'm not smart enough to know if intrest rates should be at -5% or +10% but if this is the policy pursued long term asset allocation should be relatively obvious to everyone I would think.
Personally by the way I have always been of the opinion tightening would happen if either the global banking system was out of the woods entirely or oil would spike up to 200$ but then what happens to state and government budgets or pension costs, etc.
Boxed in I guess.