Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Plus Rosenberg suffers from perma bearishness like some other analysts(The guy from the boombustblog comes to mind). Its like no matter what the 'problem' is, his opinion is that its going to be worse than consensus
He is on that camp on MENA, states and municipalities, Japan, GDP this year, and on and on
I fall on this trap sometimes so my new project will be to increase my exposure to bullish analysts and really try to see things from their perspective. For instance Cramer, who is usually trashed on this board, made a point that I had not considered regarding Japan, he said engineers taking care of the issue are one thing, they are afraid to die and radiation levels but the army(japanese soldiers) are another thing, its part of their job description to die for their country, they could be ordered to take over the plant and do XYZ, they have the whole WW2 kamikaze thing. Maybe thats a last trick the japanese are holding back in case they need
He is on that camp on MENA, states and municipalities, Japan, GDP this year, and on and on
I fall on this trap sometimes so my new project will be to increase my exposure to bullish analysts and really try to see things from their perspective. For instance Cramer, who is usually trashed on this board, made a point that I had not considered regarding Japan, he said engineers taking care of the issue are one thing, they are afraid to die and radiation levels but the army(japanese soldiers) are another thing, its part of their job description to die for their country, they could be ordered to take over the plant and do XYZ, they have the whole WW2 kamikaze thing. Maybe thats a last trick the japanese are holding back in case they need
I will probably start to look for a good broker that offers the CMEBMF integration(If you know a good one with low commissions let me know). The BMF is not an option given that I trade through a foreign corporation and opening an account is quite complicated. I dont think I'm big enough to play the NDF game(I'm assuming you need millions)
Salerno always seemed to me the most reasonable of the mises.org professors. He's main belief seems to be that deflation isn't bad because of the history the US had in the 18xx of growing output with a stable price level and some deflationary periods
I believe even Milton Friedman and Bernanke would agree with that(Friedman said the gold standard was not a bad system for that period but it became bad when government started to take over the economy and debt levels rose in the 19xxs)
With debts high Bernanke and Friedman believe deflation triggers 'debt deflation' which hurts real GDP in the short-run creating unnecessary pain in the economy. I'm curious what is Salerno's critique of Irving Fishers Debt Deflation Theory and Efficiency wage theory(It explains why wages are sticky)
And the japs better bring the kamikazes soon because the engineers might not be down to die trying to cool down the rods
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/te...ter-disclosing-truth-about-fukushima-disaster
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/te...ter-disclosing-truth-about-fukushima-disaster
The US owns around $20b of Japanese Yen, this G7 intervention might very well turn out to become a G6, maybe even less Gs than that as this is not nearly enough to make much difference in the pair. The biggest owner of Yen is the BOJ with a balance sheet of infinite amounts, if they want a weaker yen they should switch to a fixed exchange rate regime and announce they are buying unlimited amount of dollars at 85 but it seems the BOJ will do what they usually do, not enough