Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Shagi:

Its the same Warren Buffet who lost close to $1 billion on the Forex market in 2005 because he bet the dollar would drop.

His investement style and holding periods no matter how well they work is just suitable for most. He is the ultimate macro trader and has enough dole back up his views unfortunately for most holding against a strong trend for even a week or 2 leads to poor house.
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I believe he made money on that dollar trade even though he lost in 2005
 
Quote from Shagi:

It's more probable that all major currencies (except NZD) are right on the verge of a very strong long term move against the dollar and if my analysis is correct I reckon this should play out by end of next week. I could be wrong though but I would be interested in knowing your reasons for shorting the Euro.
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Essentially is a bet that euros will be sold as capital flees the EU and countries in trouble(maybe even in default) decide to leave the currency block, then they have to sell to buy the new national currency. ECB tightening might actually make this process happen sooner rather than later by triggering economic pain in the weaker countries raising the attractiveness of leaving the block
 
Quote from Daal:

Essentially is a bet that euros will be sold as capital flees the EU and countries in trouble(maybe even in default) decide to leave the currency block, then they have to sell to buy the new national currency. ECB tightening might actually make this process happen sooner rather than later by triggering economic pain in the weaker countries raising the attractiveness of leaving the block
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Thats an interesting view - though a breakup of the EU is a possibility (remote one) I don't think many folks would remain solvent for long trading on that idea. I believe the US Federal Reserve is actively lowering the value of the US dollar by pursuing its ultra-easy monetary policy. In terms of currency manipulation there is not much difference between US Fed and what The People's Bank of China is doing. Currencies like Euro/GBP are likely to remain strong for some time.
 
Quote from Daal:

Essentially is a bet that euros will be sold as capital flees the EU and countries in trouble(maybe even in default) decide to leave the currency block, then they have to sell to buy the new national currency. ECB tightening might actually make this process happen sooner rather than later by triggering economic pain in the weaker countries raising the attractiveness of leaving the block
More...

As of last night's Asian session, I have built a small short position in EUR/JPY. Carefully watching the key levels we're at in the EUR/USD and USD/JPY on the daily for some further clues.

What type of time frames are you most focused with in general?
 
The Bernanke Peso getting pole-axed again. Euro at new multi-month highs, threatening to take out $1.39. Surprise rate hike tomorrow??? Hmmm.:p
 
Quote from Shagi:

Thats an interesting view - though a breakup of the EU is a possibility (remote one) I don't think many folks would remain solvent for long trading on that idea. I believe the US Federal Reserve is actively lowering the value of the US dollar by pursuing its ultra-easy monetary policy. In terms of currency manipulation there is not much difference between US Fed and what The People's Bank of China is doing. Currencies like Euro/GBP are likely to remain strong for some time.
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I'm short the EUR against the JPY, CHF and a small amount against the USD(It was bigger but I cut as it went against me)
 
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