Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Daal:

[What are your macro bets for 2011?
short the EUR

I invite any student of economics, macro trading, investing and swing/position trading to participate on the journal and agree/disagree with any views exposed here [/B]
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You may want to re-consider that position.
 
Looking forward to the journal, Daal. I often find myself conducting similar macro-analysis and placing bets based on that research.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Should have bought more. Unless the Fed tightens significantly (which may not happen in our lifetimes), you'll never see NLY that cheap again. Stock has been producing IRR's of around 20% annually for its owners for the last 13 or 14 years (assume dividends are reinvested).
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With Fed futures I only pay my taxes in my home country since foreign citizens and corporations are exempt from US capital gain taxes as a long they file a W8-form every 3 years. With NLY, the money is subject to all the salaries, bonuses, compensations of that company THEN I have to pay withholding taxes of the dividend income since there is no treaty between my country and the US and then the money gets taxed in my home country again.

But even if there was a tax treaty I dont want to pay a middle man for something I can do myself
Thus I believe there is a better return per $1 of risk in the Fed futures
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Looking forward to the journal, Daal. I often find myself conducting similar macro-analysis and placing bets based on that research.
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hey man, free feel to post your analysis and trades
 
Bernanke said he was worried about the non-extension of the debt limit because the Treasury has a limited amount of cash to make payments of principal and interest in the outstanding debt and thus could be forced to default. It seems that he is overstating that case just to get congress to not play around with this. The Fed would bail out the UST for sure if they needed money. They would call this situation unusual and exigent and make a loan to some LLC which then would lend to Geithner or something like that(They might not have the authority to buy USTs in the primary market)
 
Quote from Daal:

Why?
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It's more probable that all major currencies (except NZD) are right on the verge of a very strong long term move against the dollar and if my analysis is correct I reckon this should play out by end of next week. I could be wrong though but I would be interested in knowing your reasons for shorting the Euro.
 
Its the same Warren Buffet who lost close to $1 billion on the Forex market in 2005 because he bet the dollar would drop.

His investement style and holding periods no matter how well they work is just suitable for most. He is the ultimate macro trader and has enough dole back up his views unfortunately for most holding against a strong trend for even a week or 2 leads to poor house.
 
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