Global Macro Trading Journal

Ms. Yellen has said recently the recovery will be uneven and lackluster if Congress doesn’t spend more to fight unemployment and keep small businesses afloat. “There is a huge amount of suffering out there. The economy needs the spending,” Ms. Yellen said in a Sept. 28 interview.

It seems to me that gold is still a buy
 
Specterx said:
Not sure if you saw this:

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/11/24/why-this-reflexive-ponzi-scheme-will-continue/

We might really see those crazy $100k+ BTC targets.
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I saw it. I think there is some true to what he is saying but at the same time, he didnt address the question of why other closed end funds don't go through the same process. Why doesn't the arbitrage kill the premium on GBTC? I believe its because there is some real demand. If pure ponzinomics could sustain these coins Bitconnect would still be around, etc
 
I'm not a complete believer on BTC, but I do have to acknowledge the fact that there is a non-trivial chance this is competing and might even replace gold one day (among millenials and Gen Z'ers, it already happened). If it does, its going to the stratosphere. Not much different from a startup that brings a new tech, changes the world and sees a gigantic multiplication of capital for its shareholders.

So while I agree with him that the reflexivity can lead to these boom bust cycles (exacerbating them), I find it dangerous to call is a ponzi, because that will lead one to to make investing and trading mistakes. He is going to sell it too soon, not rebuy it or short at some point and he could pay the price. I suspect deep down he is afraid of being an "idiot" who went long and lost money, so he calls it a ponzi to distance himself from other longs and make sure he takes his profit

I rather call it a potential revolutionary, but risky, tech. I limit my exposure but I want to be there for the whole ride if it does the tech does work
 
"Dear Fernando,
At XXXX Bank, we take client servicing seriously. With a variety of international tax and privacy regulations to consider, we are no longer able to sustainably offer account servicing outside of the United States. As a result of this decision, we're sorry to inform you that your accounts will be closed on January 6, 2021."

I had this personal US bank account since 2008, they helped me save a small fortune in FX and bank fees, so dissapointing
 
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Good little study I havent run into before
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1503e.pdf

"Concerns about deflation – falling prices of goods and services – are rooted in the view that it is very costly. We test the historical link between output growth and deflation in a sample covering 140 years for up to 38 economies. The evidence suggests that this link is weak and derives largely from the Great Depression. But we find a stronger link between output growth and asset price deflations, particularly during postwar property price deflations. We fail to uncover evidence that high debt has so far raised the cost of goods and services price deflations, in so-called debt deflations. The most damaging interaction appears to be between property price deflations and private debt."

I think one flaw on it though is that is not so much that CPI deflations are bad but that Nominal Incomes deflation are bad. That's what happened in the 30's. Its possible that the asset price collapse leads to the nominal incomes collapse through the bank lending channel/wealth effects(and thus its why they find asset price busts so bad for growth) but the point is that the if incomes fall, people cannot service debt and that creates debt deflation (which collapses assets even more).

So the only way out is for the central bank to boost the money supply in order to raise nominal incomes. The Fed's (ECBs, BOJs, BOEs) targets of inflation is nonsensical imo, they need to be targeting nominal incomes. Bernanke mentioned this in the past and currently Bullard is talking about it (NGDP targeting). If there is any big central bank that will do it first, I bet it will be the Fed. It would be very good for the US, much better than using fiscal policy, creating spending that is much harder to reverse sowing the seeds to a inflation/debt crisis
 
Currently there is the opposite, The Fed is ASKING for more fiscal stimulus, the Treasury secretary is open to it and the future Treasury secretary can't wait until she can spend more. Meanwhile deficits and debt to GDP ratios at at record levels. If the Democrats take over Congress in 2 years, that might be the nail in the coffin for the dollar and US disinflation
 
https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-c...n-may-rush-out-burdensome-crypto-wallet-rules

Mnuchin trying hard to bankrupt all the US wallet websites. It is starting to become more and more clear to me that the US is quickly becoming a financial/law enforcement police state. My number one choice for companies when it came to financial matters was always the americans ones, they felt the most reliable, stable and usually the cheaper ones too. Now, financial accounts are getting closed left right and center. In order to combat money laundering, they just impose ridiculous requests on everyone, no matter what. I guess FATCA was the canary in the coal mine.
I'm going to have to give up on the US. London, Hong Kong and the EU are my future now
I think its time for the saying to change from "Go west, young man" to "Go east young man"
 
New FED FinCEN rule will officialize the US as a financial police state
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20201023a.pdf

"The proposed modification would reduce this threshold from $3,000 to $250 for funds transfers and transmittals of funds that begin or end outside the United States. FinCEN is likewise proposing to reduce from $3,000 to $250 the threshold in the rule requiring financial institutions to transmit to other financial institutions in the payment chain information on funds transfers and transmittals of funds that begin or end outside the United States."

They want to know everything about tht $300 payment someone is making to outside the US. I used to think that Jim Rogers was crazy in saying that the US would eventually implement capital controls, he is right, this is the beginning of it
 
Its funny, reading that rule they used the same reasoning it was used to pass the Patriot Act (its for your own good, terrorism is bad, we need to stop it with more laws). But the Patriot Act has largely expired as congress realized its was a mistake and it went too far. Now Mnuchin is trying to do that all over again. They are concerned about terrorists moving $500 dollars around in several transfer to by pass the $3,000 threshold level. But if they want to get around that, they will just move cash around. How hard is to mail someone $1000 in cash? Or to just deliver it in person? They want protection and freedom, they will end up with neither
 
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