Global Macro Trading Journal

[Daal]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/07/billionaire-ray-dalio-explains-how-to-invest-in-china.html

Dalio jumping in the long China theme. I say there are even odds China equities will form another bubble in the next decade, which is great for smart investors

 

[Daal]

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/08/17/btc-3-0/

 

[Daal]

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/08/05/stop-shorting-project-zimbabwe/

 

[stockpredictor]

Dow Jones Transports quietly made a new ATH today. I don't see other technicals for other indices in a dangerous position either. We melt up before another bear market, I'd say.

 

[Daal]

Really nice macro discussion here
https://www.realvision.com/shows/th...e_collection=57c8533b8dcf4a4e8955e6e059b35c99

 

[formikatrading]

I see the melt-up. Shock and Awe time.

Dow Jones Transports quietly made a new ATH today. I don't see other technicals for other indices in a dangerous position either. We melt up before another bear market, I'd say.

 

[Daal]

Really nice macro discussion here
https://www.realvision.com/shows/th...e_collection=57c8533b8dcf4a4e8955e6e059b35c99

Trades mentioned, core long in Gold, long SPX way OTM calls (5000), long way OTM puts (as hedge against Gold turning into a "FANG stock"), long US interest options betting on negative rates, long Bitcoin

 

[Daal]

This 2012 article about volatility and hyperinflation is a must read
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5581f17ee4b01f59c2b1513a/t/561dc4cce4b00071739da90b/1444791500013/Artemis+Capital+Q12012_Volatility+at+World's+End.pdf

 

[Daal]

The issue with these sorts of tail hedges is always implementation. From time to time I try to find some nice tail options to buy but they are never as ideal as the ones that can be structured directly with an investment bank. For ES and SPY the most that I can see the calls go out at is 2-3 years out with 5000 (or $500) strikes. For bond ETFs and bond futures its a similar story. In the article he was talking about buying a 10 year call on SPX for a 10,000 strike (back when SPX was at 1400), the payoff of an option like that would have been much great under hyperinflation. If anyone know how to structure a trade similar to the one presented in the article, I'm all ears

 

[stockpredictor]

The issue with these sorts of tail hedges is always implementation. From time to time I try to find some nice tail options to buy but they are never as ideal as the ones that can be structured directly with an investment bank. For ES and SPY the most that I can see the calls go out at is 2-3 years out with 5000 (or $500) strikes. For bond ETFs and bond futures its a similar story. In the article he was talking about buying a 10 year call on SPX for a 10,000 strike (back when SPX was at 1400), the payoff of an option like that would have been much great under hyperinflation. If anyone know how to structure a trade similar to the one presented in the article, I'm all ears

To my knowledge, the 'best' tail hedger, as far as downside goes, is Spitznagel. I'm sure everyone knows about his 4000%+ gain.