Global Macro Trading Journal

I'm seeing right now a presentation in Brazil talking about US high yield where they used some formulas based off historical regressions to extract the implied US default rate based off current junk bond market pricing. And its around 5-7% implied. The realized is already at 5% and in 2009 it reached 13%. And I'm sure this ridiculous overvaluation is also effecting the price of the equity of many companies (since they are competing assets)
The Fed has been successful at detaching the market from fundamentals
 
Specterx said:
It didn't happen in Japan (yet) because Japanese investors could always switch into USD for better value/higher yields, up to the limit of their willingness to tolerate or hedge the currency risk. In the past several years U.S. megacap tech has additionally benefited from the momentum or "story stock" reflexivity flywheel - something clearly still in operation as NDX leads the charge higher. As U.S. indices break new ground in terms of ERP compression you'll see the Nikkei and European indices chased higher as well.
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I would just like to remind you that a similar thesis is the reason why Glassman and Hassett thought the Dow would go to 36,000
 
Daal said:
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-2020-6-1029349522

This is an interesting investment opportunity to be analyzed in the future. Whether Chamath is doing that because he wants others to have an opportunity to invest in the earlier stage tech world or whether he wants liquidity to cash out remains to be seen. I suspect its the later as he seems to be a typical Silicon Valley asshole but I'm open to be shown wrong and invest
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It's just empire-building megalomania. My own thinking is that Buffett's story was a product of his time. Trying to imitate him or his investment method and expecting similar results in the 21st century is a sign of an egomaniac more than anything else - and therefore a signal to run away as fast as you can!
 
The challenge is access to instruments to trade that. I do not see HKD or Saudi Rial options on IB. Even USDCAD options (through CAD futures) dont go out that far. So maybe way OTM gold calls is all that is left
 
Daal said:
"Protesters outside Amazon's Jeff Bezos’ home set up guillotine"
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/amazon-driver-abandons-delivery-van-viral-tweet

It looks to me that the US is on the verge of a social revolution in terms of wealth distribution, all it needs is a catalyst. In terms of race issues it was George Floyd, in terms of wealth I dont know what will be but it seems likely to happen within the next 12-24 months
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The activists at the top of the food chain get support and funding from wealthy benefactors and their foundations. Check out the "Thousand Currents" NGO. Seemingly everything is being canceled or destroyed, yet we don't hear one word about taxes on the rich, health care etc etc. At the moment it seems the plutocrats have things well contained. One might even say it's all working very well as a distraction...
 
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Interesting
 
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