Global Macro Trading Journal

ralph00 · Jun 3, 2011

Niels Jensen on the euro ... "when you remove the weakest link in a chain, what's left is stronger."

He sees the euro continuing to move higher vs. the $, but with 3 or 4 less members in a couple of years.

I don't know if I agree or disagree, but anyone short the euro because they think a pig may exit has to get too many things right. 1. a pig has to exit. 2. the euro must then follow conventional thinking and go down.

Maybe so, but there's got to be better trades out there.

Martinghoul · Jun 3, 2011

Problem with the "removing the weakest link in the chain" argument is that, while it mechanically makes the EUR basket stronger, it also makes the ccy union less credible. So while it may strengthen EUR in the short-term, surely it argues that, long-term, the construct isn't viable.

ralph00 · Jun 3, 2011

I would argue the opposite. Long-term, euro composed of just the core countries is solid as a rock, another swiss franc.

Daal · Jun 3, 2011

But in the short-run it will lead to TONs of selling as the citizens drop their euros for the new currency. Euro exit it essentially a massive sell order, markets tend to let this kind of shortermism win out over longer term fundamentals

Daal · Jun 6, 2011

Rogoff on the EU. Calls either for a EUR collapse or growth boom
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff81/English

Daal · Jun 6, 2011

EU default could affect US money market funds
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/1/1/159697711.html

I believe Congress changed the law that enabled the treasury secretary of using the UST FX intervention fund to prop up the MMF industry like Paulson did. So they are on their own at this point(TARP also has expired)

Martinghoul · Jun 6, 2011

MMIFF can always been re-instituted quite easily. Generally, it's no secret that the mm system is still screwed up and that there hasn't been much meaningful reform. Still it's a bit better than it was before, due to some new rules (shorter maturities, tighter liquidity requirements, etc).

Daal · Jun 6, 2011

Quote from Martinghoul:

MMIFF can always been re-instituted quite easily. Generally, it's no secret that the mm system is still screwed up and that there hasn't been much meaningful reform. Still it's a bit better than it was before, due to some new rules (shorter maturities, tighter liquidity requirements, etc).

Well, but what if there is a run 2008 style?Now they just can't guarantee the whole thing

Martinghoul · Jun 6, 2011

Quote from Daal:
Well, but what if there is a run 2008 style?Now they just can't guarantee the whole thing

Well, as I said, the regulations are a bit tougher now, so the probability of a 2008-style run is a wee bit lower. Also, why can't they guarantee the whole thing like they did with MMIFF, if sh1t properly hits the fan?

Daal · Jun 6, 2011

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, as I said, the regulations are a bit tougher now, so the probability of a 2008-style run is a wee bit lower. Also, why can't they guarantee the whole thing like they did with MMIFF, if sh1t properly hits the fan?

I read in a book about the crisis that congress amended the legislation and the UST Fx fund can't be used for that purpose anymore. They would have to go do congress to ask for it again. The run would happen within hours/days