Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from jj90:

@Daal,

why JCP and not something like say SPLS? I'd have to run the balance sheet numbers but a cursory glance at JCP has several issues that I don't like to see. Re: SPLS, I'm aware it's not an apple/apple comparision, something like GPS would be better to compare with, but at least you are buying something that isn't so highly leveraged and bleeding cash.

Darkhorse makes a good point here, I've been wanting to buy solar names because they have just been beaten up so bad, but the outlook for solar is so grim that a potshot might still be throwing away cash.

And to quote Ben Graham: 'there is investing, educated speculating and dumb speculation'. Are you able and confident to tell if which category JCP falls in?
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The elements of risk can be cut down by waiting for greater evidence that the turnaround is working. There will be a cost in terms of price paid per share(The stock will gap up) but the difference between the fair value of the stock and the price after the gap will still be large due a number of reasons

CDS is above 700 so yes there is risk but its seems quite overplayed by the media frenzy
 
Pretty much all of the mortgage REITs have declared Q2 divvies. No cuts and a few hikes ... ATMs.

NLY still the most conservative of the bunch. For those that want more aggression, try AGNC. Not an owner myself anymore, but Kain is a badass.
 
CNBC reports JPM sold 60% of the position. Dimon reports they will make a profit this quarter. Surprise surprise, panicky investors were wrong
 
If the $2B loss has some massive volcker implications then ALL big bank stocks should have collapsed. That didn't happen. JPM XLF spread collapsed, incorrectly due this just being a one time hit to earnings. Heck, this loss will just help them not to get complacent for another few years
 
Quote from Daal:

CNBC reports JPM sold 60% of the position. Dimon reports they will make a profit this quarter. Surprise surprise, panicky investors were wrong
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Even after a big bounce, the shares remain well lower than the level they were at. Those who sold the news (and maybe bought back later) were absolutely right.

Listen, be a douchebag to me - I really don't care - but stop being such a prick to the rest of the population.
 
*Long bonds breaking down today (10yr, 30yr)

*Spanish bond yields biggest one-day dive since December

* GLD, GDX selling off / looking like shite again

Unless the Fed does something way out of line w/ expectations, broad message seems to be Europe is going back to boring (deeply problematic but contained), fear trade is subsiding, and full blown QE3 will have to wait for more serious deterioration of US economy, implying short to medium term blah-to-up scenario for equities and negative for precious metals.

No positions at moment, but I'm guessing we'll have a chance to buy gold / gold stocks at much more attractive prices within the next few months. Not really interested in shorting, though, b/c of outside chances European shit hits the fan again.
 
Quote from Daal:

CNBC reports JPM sold 60% of the position. Dimon reports they will make a profit this quarter. Surprise surprise, panicky investors were wrong
More...

Ok. So JPM is back down again today. Does that make all those who are not you right again? I'm losing track.
 
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