Global Macro Trading Journal

[Daal]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-year-german-bond-yield-may-go-negative-2012-05-24?siteid=bnbh

Lower safe haven real yields in Europe just makes the US look more attractive in a relative basis. Thus encouraging flows into USD instead of EUR

 

[ammo]

Quote from Daal:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/23/1012581/capital-is-leaving-europe/

"Perhaps more interestingly, the main reason behind the negative overall portfolio flows was the activity of eurozone investors, who bought €60bn of foreign assets, mainly bonds and money market instruments. This is the largest foreign investments in almost 1.5 years."

And this was MARCH data

these same investors might represent the same idiot mentality that bought into the real estate bonds and got taken,then the whole setup was blamed on subprime mortgages, no one knew what these cds's were,i doubt anyone knows what these(foriegn assets) derivatives are either and when they all get taken, it will be blamed on the greeks,one big ponzi after another

 

[ralph00]

EURCHF just popped to 1.2026. Sweet, but it's gotta be a fat finger.

 

[Daal]

Rumor that CHF deposits to be taxed. pair at 1.204x, question is, should I take profits. I'm thinking no, market might realize they are serious about the whole weak franc policy thing

 

[ralph00]

If the Swiss take action and the ECB takes action as rumor has it they will, this pair is going to CHF 1.25.

 

[ralph00]

It looks like nothing more than a rumor (Swiss tax). Sounds like someone just wanted to make a few quick bucks.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from darkhorse:

Not true buckaroo - in volatility terms (i.e. as a multiple of average trading range), $AUDUSD is down more

Not only does this appear to be untrue (using EWA, $XAD and a simple average true range and starting from May 1, EWA is down a larger multiple) but it's majestically irrelevant. Put the same capital on both positions and I now have more profit - twice as much in fact. Whether your risk was lower than mine depends on where and how you entered rather than some meaningless aggregate statistic.

It's possible I will endure steeper drawdowns as the trade proceeds, but so long as the original thesis is in place (among other things AUDUSD can be tracked as an indicator of the underlying thesis strength) those are merely superior second or third chances to add to the trade.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from Debaser82:

I was talking to someone in construction today and he told me our markets are being swamped with Germans willing to work at half the price of minimum wage here and falsely be registered as cleaning staff.

So I guess this makes Germans the new Mexicans.

I don't understand this, are you being serious or kidding? Why on earth would Germans want to work construction in America en masse?

 

[luisHK]

Debaser is talking about belgium market, but I find it weird as well, as Belgium doesn't seem so much better off than germany, actually not better off at all.

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from luisHK:

Debaser is talking about belgium market, but I find it weird as well, as Belgium doesn't seem so much better off than germany, actually not better off at all.

Belgium indeed and as to the why, well I take it is is no secret a lot of German economic strength has been build on wage tempering.

The so called mini jobs alone employs hundreds of thousands for like 4 Euro an hour if I am correct.