Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from darkhorse:

I'm mainly just curious as to how deep your research process goes with these kinds of plays, but also curious if there is a reason why JCP looks better as a fundamental purchase than the outlook suggested, e.g. if there's a value investing rationale for long JCP I would be interested in hearing what it is.

I can play a little rough here and there but I think my track record of acknowledging good points and sticking to fair terms of debate on this thread (and in general) is a fair one.
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There is no research other than the fact that Ackman and Tilson (Ackman's little poodle, $300M AUM lol) like it. Toss in a heavy dose of arrogance (just like w/JPM, no research or decent knowledge of the company, just that the crowd has to be wrong).

Sloppy and lazy and a strategy sure to leave you poorer. BTW, JPM is off another 10% since all the "fools" sold it last week.
 
Quote from darkhorse:

I'm mainly just curious as to how deep your research process goes with these kinds of plays, but also curious if there is a reason why JCP looks better as a fundamental purchase than the outlook suggested, e.g. if there's a value investing rationale for long JCP I would be interested in hearing what it is.

I can play a little rough here and there but I think my track record of acknowledging good points and sticking to fair terms of debate on this thread (and in general) is a fair one.
More...

Fair enough. I saw Ackman thesis about JCP and liked what I saw. At the same time the stock had soared as he brought in the new CEO and they made a bunch of announcements. I didn't want to buy as I had a hunch people would 'change their mind' about the company as the changed they were looking to do are very long-term and people tend to be more short-term and care too much about quarter to quarter performance

Its a turnaround play(I wouldn't do this in any stock) so I speculated people would get pessimistic at some point(Specially considering the stock has a decent amount of debt) or the recession/slowdown thesis would bring down the stock. It seems that the technical term for this risk aversion is called prospect theory, I don't know, I know that usually when you buy when people are shitting their pants over losses you get excess returns(There are excess returns when the VIX is high)

The collapse happened so now I'm buying. Scaling in because I feel like that market might keep going down till a washout point over the next days/weeks. Its not a quick trade. I plan to hold for 2-3 years
 
Interesting via Ritholtz - factors institutional investors favor.

Brings to mind old Julian Robertson quote: "It's me and the patsies"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/factors-institutional-investors-are-favoring/

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Quote from ralph00:

It's a silly survey. What would you have them say?

You left out the most important part which is the rush into dividend stocks. Definitely keeps me up at night and sure to end badly.
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I liked Einhorn's comment on REITs getting pumped to high heaven by desperate Japanese investors reaching for yield
 
Quote from darkhorse:

I liked Einhorn's comment on REITs getting pumped to high heaven by desperate Japanese investors reaching for yield
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Also keeping me up at night, but I'm not sure which ones he's talking about. NLY has traded in the same price range and roughly same yield forever.

Julian Robertson's steepener trade (I'm putting them in all my family's stockings for Xmas) may be one of the bigger public boners ever.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Also keeping me up at night, but I'm not sure which ones he's talking about. NLY has traded in the same price range and roughly same yield forever.

Julian Robertson's steepener trade (I'm putting them in all my family's stockings for Xmas) may be one of the bigger public boners ever.
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Speaking of public boners, you should wonder what Sarah Eisen has underneath her skirt.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=242672&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
 
Quote from ralph00:

Gonna cover my SPY puts into the close. The market is getting ridiculously oversold and these puppies have done their job well.
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Maybe a wise decision, but I'm holding my spy puts and crossing my fingers.
 
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